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<br />City of San Leandro Marina Lodging Development
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<br />Page 9
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<br /> Table One
<br /> Potential Marina Conference Center Hotel
<br /> Estimated AOR and Occupancy
<br /> 2006 to 2015
<br /> Total Net Operating
<br />Year Occu anc ADR* Revenue Income Ratio
<br />2006 63.0% $192.00 $18,355,000 $2.764,000 15.1%
<br />2007 67.0% $209.00 $20,656.000 $3.892,000 18.8%
<br />2008 70.0% $215.00 $22.213.000 $4,373,000 19.7%
<br />2009 70.0% $221.00 $22,857.000 $4,571,000 20.0%
<br />2010 70.0% $228.00 $23,560,000 $4,727.000 20.1%
<br />2011 70.0% $235.00 $24,276,000 $4,882.000 20.1%
<br />2012 70.0% $242.00 $25,001,000 $5,033,000 20.1%
<br />2013 70.0% $249.00 $25,738,000 $5,176,000 20.1%
<br />2014 70.0% $257.00 $26.538,000 $5.361,000 20.2%
<br />2015 70.0% $264.00 $27,297,000 $5,497.000 20.1%
<br />*Rounded to the nearest dollar.
<br />Source; PKF Consu/tln
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<br />As can be noted in Table One, we project that the conference center hotel will
<br />achieve an occupancy level of 63.0 percent at an ADR of $192.00 in its first year of
<br />operation as stated in 2006 value dollars. This will result in an operating income of
<br />approximately $2,764,000. By the year 2008, the conference center hotel is
<br />projected to stabilize at an occupancy level of 70.0 percent with an operating income
<br />of $4,373,000, a ratio of approximately 20.0 percent of total revenue. If open and
<br />operating on a stabilized basis at the present time, the property is estimated to attain
<br />a 70.0 percent annual occupancy at an ADR of $180.00, stated in 2002 value dollars.
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<br />2. Restaurant Operating Results
<br />
<br />Based on the performance of both the two existing restaurants at the Marina and a
<br />selection of comparable restaurants that we have studied, we have cQncluded that an
<br />approximately 225-seat full-service, themed restaurant facility open daily and serving
<br />lunch and dinner is market justified at the Marina. Our research indicates that the
<br />theme of the facility should be a fresh, modern concept similar to P.F. Chang's.
<br />Elephant Bar, or Cheesecake Factory, among others. A summary of the
<br />performance of similar restaurants is presented in Table Three on page 12.
<br />
<br />Table Three
<br />Com arable Restaurants
<br />Restaurant Location Number of Seats
<br />Horatio's San Leandro Marina 290
<br />EI Torito San Leandro Marina 265
<br />Scott's Seafood Grill Jack London Square 300
<br />Hs Lordships Berkeley Marina 214
<br />Kincaid's Ba House Redondo Beach 280
<br />
<br />Source: Restaurant Mana ers and PKF Consultin
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<br />2001 Revenue
<br />$4,550,000
<br />$2,400,000
<br />$12,000,000
<br />$4,700,000
<br />$6,500,000
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