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mode. The City's bicycle demand will be evaluated in terms of mode split. <br /> Demographics <br /> San Leandro has an estimated current (1995) population of about 72,300, which is expected to <br /> increase to 76,800 by 2005. ABAG projects the following: <br /> • A stable population base with a growth rate of' about 0.9% from 1995 to 2000 <br /> and about 0.3% from 2000 to 2005. <br /> • An employment- resident ratio of 1.32 (42,390 jobs to 32,000 employed <br /> residents) in 1995 that will decrease to 1.26 (44,900 jobs to 35,700 employed <br /> residents) in 2005. This balancing effect translates into a higher number of <br /> people who live and work in San Leandro who could bicycle to work. <br /> According to the 1990 U.S. Census, the current bicycle mode split to work is 0.5% for people <br /> living in San Leandro. School trips, recreation trips, and other non - work - related trips make <br /> the overall bicycle mode split much higher than 0.5 %, and may make it as high as 3%. <br /> Currently, 77% of elementary and 86% of junior high school students in the San Leandro <br /> Unified School District (SLUSD) attend the school in their areas of residence, which means <br /> that they are within bicycling distance to school. Many students in San Leandro High School <br /> ride to school as well. Three additional schools (Arroyo High, Washington Manor Middle, <br /> and Corvallis Elementary) not in the SLUSD are also attended by students of nearby San <br /> Leandro residence (Corvallis and Washington Manor are located in San Leandro). With school <br /> enrollment projected to rise by 8.3% by 1999 (Lapkoff and Gobalet Demographic Research), <br /> and the potential reopening of Madison Elementary School (Juniper Street), the City's bicycle <br /> mode split will likely increase in the near future. <br /> • The National Bicycling and Walking Study, a compendium of studies conducted by the U.S. <br /> Department of Transportation, estimates that a properly designed bicycle system will double <br /> the level of bicycle travel to work by the year 2005. The study also sets a 5% national goal for <br /> bicycle commute mode split by the year 2005. With the favorable qualities the City offers to <br /> bicycle riding, it's bicycle mode split to work has the potential to exceed the current national <br /> average of 1.0% and year 2005 national goal of 5.0 %. <br /> 23 <br />