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<br /> • Oakland International Airport Master Plan
<br /> Aviation Stakeholder Advisory Committee
<br /> Update Briefing No. 2
<br /> September 1, 2004
<br /> The Port of Oakland is preparing a 20 -year master plan for Oakland International Airport (OAK).
<br /> The Aviation Stakeholder Advisory Committee, which advises Port staff on master planning issues,
<br /> met on Thursday, August 19, 2004, to discuss and review master plan forecasts of aviation activity,
<br /> including airline passengers and passenger airline operations (takeoffs or landings), air cargo and
<br /> cargo airline operations, and general aviation operations.
<br /> Port staff and Committee members discussed why forecasts are important in near -term and long-
<br /> term planning, but that forecasts of aviation activity are almost always wrong (in other words, the
<br /> actual number of passengers realized in a particular year rarely ever matches the forecast number
<br /> of passengers for that year). This difference occurs because of trend - breakers. Example trend -
<br /> breakers include airline deregulation, the Gulf War, September 11, jet fuel availability and prices,
<br /> SARS, economic downturns, low -cost carrier competition, etc. Because of this reality, airport
<br /> planners must focus on providing plans, programs, and projects that are flexible and workable for a
<br /> range of possible future conditions.
<br /> Port staff and Committee members discussed the planning horizon for the master plan and
<br /> associated forecasting level of detail. The near -term planning horizon (5 -years out) will be 2010,
<br /> and the long -term horizon will be 2025 (20 -years out). The Port and Committee will develop more
<br /> detailed forecasts for the 2010 timeframe, and more general forecasts for 2025.
<br /> Airline Passenger / Passenger Airline Operations
<br /> The Port and Committee reviewed existing airline passenger forecasts for Oakland International
<br /> Airport, including those prepared for (1) the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Terminal
<br /> Area Forecast (TAF), (2) the Regional Airport Planning Committee's (RAPC's) Regional Airport
<br /> System Plan (RASP), and (3) the Port's Airport Development Program (ADP) 2003 Supplemental
<br /> Environmental Impact Report (SEIR). Based on this data and a review of historic growth, it was
<br /> determined that the Airport can expect approximately 18 million annual passengers (MAP) in 2010
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<br /> and 30 MAP in 2025. For comparison, the Airport accommodated 13.5 MAP in calendar year 2003,
<br /> and 13.9 MAP for the 12 months ending in June 2004.
<br /> For planning purposes, the number of annual passengers must be translated into the number of
<br /> passengers expected on the average day of the peak month (ADPM). Historically, August has been
<br /> the peak month at the Airport, in which 9.7% of the annual passengers fly. To get the number of
<br /> passengers on the ADPM, one simply takes the annual passengers that fly in August (9.7% of the
<br /> annual passengers) and divides by 31 (the number of days in August). This calculation yields 56,047
<br /> passengers and 93,412 passengers on the ADPM in 2010 and 2025, respectively. This compares to
<br /> 42,582 passengers on the average day in August 2003.
<br /> Once ADPM passengers are computed, one can assign these passengers to airlines, which fly certain
<br /> types of aircraft with certain seating configurations. It was assumed that on the ADPM, the airlines
<br /> serving the Airport would achieve an 80% load factor (i.e., 80% of the seats departing and arriving
<br /> would be octupied, on average, on the ADPM). A flight schedule from the ADP SEIR was used as a
<br /> starting point, modified as appropriate, and then flights were added to this base schedule to
<br /> achieve the assumed 80% load factor. It was assumed that the Airport would have approximately
<br /> 10 airlines, with Southwest Airlines continuing to be the dominant air carrier with a market share
<br /> (based on seats) of slightly over 60 %. These assumptions yielded the need for 542 fights (arrivals
<br /> and departures) on the ADMP in 2010. For comparison, the Airport had 430 passenger flights on
<br /> the ADPM in August 2004. The Boeing 737 - series aircraft would continue to be the dominant
<br /> aircraft at the Airport, with just over 80% of the flights. The new 18 MAP ADPM flight schedule
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<br /> Item 20
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