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unique, based on local water supply systems, soil conditions, and the typical climate and vegetation land covering. The effects of drought are managed in the Bay Area through the importation of water and the storage of water in reservoirs. The United States Drought Monitor is produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Monitor releases weekly maps of current drought conditions. NOAA also publishes one year outlook maps for temperature and precipitation.39 The maps project temperature and precipitation twelve months out – describing the conditions as likely below, above, or average. 5.8.1 Historic Bay Area Drought Occurrences Major droughts occurred in California that affected the Bay Area in 1973, 1976-77, 1987- 1991, and 2007-09. Drought conditions in 1973 led to a state-declared disaster in Glenn, San Benito, and Santa Clara counties, resulting in $8 million in agricultural loss. Between 1976 and 1977, California experienced one of its most severe droughts. 1977 was the state’s driest year on record. In the Bay Area, Contra Costa, Napa, San Mateo, and Marin counties were four of the several counties where a state disaster was declared. Statewide, $2.67 billion in damages occurred in the two-year period. Marin, Solano, and Sonoma counties were also affected in the 1987-1991 drought, which caused $1.7 billion in crop losses nationwide. The 2007-2009 drought did not directly affect Bay Area counties, but caused $300 million in crop loss statewide.40 In January 2014, the Governor declared a State of Emergency in California in response to current drought conditions, which began in 2012. Thus far, 2015 has surpassed 1977 as the driest year on record in California. As of June 2015, statewide reservoirs are at 18-67 percent of average and Sonoma County has declared a local Emergency Proclamation.41 5.8.2 Probability of Future Drought – Climate Influenced Climate change is likely to increase the number and severity of future droughts. The cumulative impact of climate change impacts will result in drier conditions, and will alter the timing and efficiency of the Bay Area water supply. An increase in temperature and a reduction in snow pack are the two most direct effects of climate change that will result in a drier state with fewer natural water resources than historically have been available. 39 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php 40 State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services 41 California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (2015)