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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County June 2016 i MRW & Associates, LLC Executive Summary California Assembly Bill 117, passed in 2002, established Community Choice Aggregation in California, for the purpose of providing the opportunity for local governments or special jurisdictions to procure or provide electric power for their residents and businesses. In June 2014, the Alameda County Board of Supervisors voted unanimously to allocate funding to explore the creation of a Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) Program called East Bay Community Energy (EBCE) and directed County staff to undertake the steps necessary to evaluate the feasibility of a CCA. This feasibility study is in response to this Board Action. In order to assess whether a CCA is “feasible” in Alameda County, the local objectives must be laid out and understood. Based on the specifications of the initial request for proposals and input from the County, this study:  Quantifies the electric loads that an Alameda County CCA would have to serve  Estimates the costs to start-up and operate the CCA  Considers scenarios with differing assumptions concerning the amount of carbon-free power being supplied to the CCA so as to assess the costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions possible with the CCA  Includes analysis of in-county renewable generation  Compares the rates that could be offered by the CCA to PG&E’s rates  Quantitatively explores the rate competiveness to key input variables, such as the cost of natural gas  Explores what activities a CCA might take with respect to administering customer-side energy efficiency programs  Calculates the macroeconomic development and employment benefits of CCA formation. Loads and Forecast Figure ES-1 provides a snapshot of Alameda County electric load in 2014 by city and by rate class. As the figure shows, total electricity load in 2014 from Alameda County was approximately 8,000 GWh. The cities of Oakland, Fremont, and Hayward were together responsible for half the county load, with Berkeley, San Leandro, and Pleasanton also contributing substantially. Residential and commercial customers made up the majority of the county load, with smaller contributions from the industrial and public sectors. To forecast CCA loads through 2030, MRW used a 0.3% annual average growth rate, which is consistent with the California Energy Commission’s most recent electricity demand forecast for PG&E’s planning area. This growth rate incorporates load reductions from the CCA’s energy efficiency programs of about 6 GWh per year from 2021 through 2030. Figure ES-2 shows this forecast by class, with the energy efficiency savings that are included in the forecast indicated by the top (yellow) segment.