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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County <br />June 2016 ix MRW & Associates, LLC <br />Sensitivity Analysis <br />In addition to the base case forecast described above, MRW assessed alternative cases to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to possible conditions that could impact the Alameda <br />CCA’s rate competitiveness. The key factors are summarized in Table ES-2. <br />Table ES-2. <br />Factor Sensitivity Change  <br />Relicensing Diablo Canyon Increases PG&E’s generation rates by ~30%5  <br />Increased cost of renewable power 10% higher through 2021, 20% higher in 2021  <br />and 2022, and 30% higher after 2022  <br />High PCIA (“exit fee”) Retains the high PCIA expected in 2018  <br />(2.1¢/kWh) through 2030  <br />High Natural Gas Prices  <br />US Energy Information Administration’s High Gas  <br />Price Scenario, which is about 60% higher than  <br />the base case price  <br />Low PG&E Rates PG&E rates 10% lower than base forecast   <br />Stress Scenario Combined impact of high renewable costs, high  <br />PCIA, high gas price and low PG&E rates.  <br /> <br />The sensitivity results are shown as the difference between the annual average PG&E generation <br />rate and the Alameda CCA rate6 and are shown in Figure ES-7. Scenario 1 (RPS Compliance) is <br />the least costly scenario for the CCA and therefore has the highest rate differentials under most <br />of the sensitivity cases considered. Scenario 2 (Accelerated RPS), though still quite competitive with PG&E, fares slightly worse, with a rate differential typically about 8% lower than in <br />Scenario 1. Scenario 3 (80% RPS by 2021) has the highest renewable content and is the costliest <br />scenario, with rate differentials much lower than those in the other two scenarios. While Scenario <br />3 is anticipated to be competitive with PG&E in most cases (on average), the margins are much <br />lower, particularly in the “High Renewable Prices” sensitivity case, and they become negative in the “Low PG&E rates” sensitivity case (i.e., CCA customer rates are higher than PG&E rates). <br /> <br />5 The new cooling system, which would be required per state regulations implementing the Federal Clean Water <br />Act, Section 316(b), would alone have an estimated cost of $4.5 billion. It is because of these very high costs that the base case assumes the that power plant is retired. <br />6The Alameda CCA rate includes the PG&E exit fees (PCIA charges) that will be charged to CCA customers but does not include the rate adjustment for the reserve fund.