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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County <br />June 2016 xiii MRW & Associates, LLC <br />Conclusions <br />Overall, a CCA in Alameda County appears favorable. Given current and expected market and regulatory conditions, an Alameda County CCA should be able to offer its residents and business <br />electric rates that are a cent or more per kilowatt-hour (~8%) less than that available from PG&E. <br />Sensitivity analyses suggest that these results are relatively robust. Only when very high <br />amounts of renewable energy are assumed in the CCA portfolio (Scenario 3), combined with <br />other negative factors, do PG&E’s rates become consistently more favorable than the CCAs. <br />An Alameda CCA would also be well positioned to help facilitate greater amounts renewable <br />generation to be installed in the County. While the study assumed a relatively modest amount <br />for its analysis—about 175 MW, other studies suggest that greater amounts are possible. <br />Because the CCA would have a much greater interest in developing local solar than PG&E, it is <br />much more likely that such development would actually occur with a CCA in the County than without it. <br />The CCA can also reduce the amount greenhouse gases emitted by the County, but only under <br />certain circumstances. Because PG&E’s supply portfolio has significant carbon-free generation <br />(large hydroelectric and nuclear generators), the CCA must contract for significant amounts of <br />carbon-fee power above and beyond the required qualifying renewables in order to actually reduce the county’s electric carbon footprint. For example, even assuming that the CCA <br />implements a portfolio with 50% qualifying renewables and meets the 50% of the remaining <br />power with carbon-free hydropower, it would only then just barely result in net carbon <br />reductions. However, the extent to which GHG emissions reductions could occur is also a <br />function of the amount of hydroelectric power that PG&E is able to use. If hydro output (continues) to be below historic normal levels, then the CCA should be able to achieve GHG <br />savings, as long as it is also contracting for significant amounts of carbon-free (likely <br />hydroelectric) power. Therefore, if carbon reductions are a high priority for the CCA, a <br />concerted effort to contract with hydroelectric or other carbon-free generators would be needed. <br />A CCA can also offer positive economic development and employment benefits to the County. At the peak, the CCA would create approximately 2300 new jobs in the region. The large amount <br />for be for construction trades, totaling 440 jobs. What may be surprising is that much for the <br />jobs and economic benefit come from reduced rates. Residents, and more importantly <br />businesses, can spend and reinvest their bill savings, and thus generate greater economic impacts.