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<br />18 <br />By century’s end, the increase in the number of days per year above the 90 ◦F mark could reach fivefold <br />under RCP 4.5, but be as much as 41 times higher in a business-as-usual scenario. However, mid-range <br />RCP 8.5 projections indicate the number of days may be closer to 11 times higher (see Figure 11).31 <br />Higher temperatures will likely increase the magnitude of heat hazards in the city, for instance, heat <br />stroke or exhaustion among local residents, workers and visitors, or raised demand for power during <br />peak periods which could affect the frequency of outages. Since San Leandro residents are unlikely to <br />have air conditioning units in their homes,32 residents, especially the elderly, disabled or socially <br />isolated, will be more vulnerable to extreme heat events.33 These high temperatures and the associated <br />hazards may be exaggerated by local conditions, such as the urban heat island effect, where buildings <br />and pavement absorb heat during the day and then radiate that heat at night, limiting nighttime cooling <br />and amplifying daytime high temperatures.34 <br />Figure 11. Projected Extreme Heat Days in San Leandro <br /> <br />Notes: RCP 8.5 projected annual number of days above 90 ◦F throughout the 21st century. Lines represent low-end (light orange), <br />mid-range (dark orange) and high-end (red) model results. Source: Reclamation35 as represented on Vizonomy. <br /> <br />31 Reclamation. (2013). <br />32 Pacific Institute. (2012). Social Vulnerability Index. Percent of Households without Air Conditioning. Accessed at: <br />http://pacinst.org/publication/study-maps-social-vulnerability-to-climate-change-in-california-and-identifies-need-for- <br />adaptation-planning/ <br />33 USGCRP. (2016). Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific <br />Assessment. dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0R49NQX <br />34 USGCRP. (2016). <br />35 Reclamation. (2013). 'Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections: Release of Downscaled CMIP5 <br />Climate Projections, Comparison with preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs', prepared by the U.S. Department of <br />the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Services Center, Denver, Colorado. <br />62