5A Public Hearings 2018 0220 - Laserfiche WebLink

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2.3.5 Infrastructure and Services Chapter 6 of the proposed Specific Plan discusses existing infrastructure and includes policies to promote reclaimed water projects, solar power generation, solar heating, efficient recycling, storm water pollution prevention and infiltration and other environmentally sensitive and carbon footprint minimizing infrastructure in the Specific Plan Area. 2.3.6 Implementation Specific Plan Chapter 7 describes the implementation activities, capital improvement projects, monitoring approach, and plan administration needed to execute the vision of the Specific Plan. It identifies a range of funding programs to implement the capital improvements needed to support existing and future development. The chapter includes the process for administering and evaluating the Specific Plan over time, the phasing and development strategy, implementation actions, capital improvement costs, and funding and financing options. 2.3.7 Buildout Projections CEQA Guidelines Section 15126.2 requires that an EIR focus on the significant “direct and indirect” and “short-term and long-term” effects of a project. To ensure a conservative approach in analyzing environmental effects under CEQA, EIRs typically analyze what could be considered a maximum reasonable impact scenario in order to capture as many significant environmental effects as could reasonably be expected as a result of the project. For a programmatic evaluation of a land use plan, this entails projecting buildout calculations to carry through the environmental review process. These projections reflect the estimated number of new housing units, amount of new commercial development, and increased resident and employment populations that are reasonably foreseeable for the duration of the proposed Specific Plan through 2035. The actual rate and amount of development would be dependent on market conditions and regulatory processes. For the purposes of the environmental analysis, a reasonable and conservative estimate of buildout associated with the proposed Specific Plan through the horizon year 2035 would include development of 2,540 housing units and 300,000 square feet of office space, as well as the removal of an estimated 161,000 square feet of retail space. The projections rely on three primary factors:  Market Conditions in the Specific Plan Area. The market analysis completed by Strategic Economics as part of the project’s existing conditions report, and further feasibility analysis completed by the project team on February 7, 2017, found that the market for development in the Bay Fair area is challenging. Development will be challenging in the Bay Fair area in the short-term, but may occur as the market changes in the medium-to-long term. Currently, residential is a more market-supported development type than office. This analysis suggests that full buildout of the Bay Fair area to its theoretical maximum intensity is unlikely in the time horizon of this plan, and that the development that does occur may not be immediate.  The Availability of Possible Development Sites. The project team identified the areas in the Specific Plan Area where it seemed possible that development could occur in the time horizon of the Specific Plan. These areas where development seemed possible were: BART Station Area, portions of Bayfair Center, Fashion Faire shopping area, portions of the Fairmont Square shopping center area, and the King Parcel. Only minimal development was assumed along 113