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102 <br /> <br />Probability of Future Drought – Climate Influenced <br />Climate change is likely to increase the number and severity of future droughts in San <br />Leandro. The cumulative impact of climate change impacts will result in drier <br />conditions, and will alter the timing and efficiency of San Leandro’s water supply. An <br />increase in temperature and a reduction in snow pack are the two most direct effects <br />of climate change that will result in a drier state with fewer natural water resources <br />than historically have been available. <br />Increased Fire Hazard <br />Fire hazard increases where drought conditions are high. There are multiple drought <br />related factors that contribute to increased fire hazard: longer fire season, drier <br />vegetation, and hot days. Additionally, drought reduces the water supplies available <br />to fight wildfires, leading to larger and more extended fires. <br /> <br /> <br />5.9.3 EXTREME HEAT <br />The Bay Area, especially away from the coast and bay, can experience extreme heat <br />days, where the Heat Index, a function of heat and relative humidity, is high. Extreme <br />heat days pose a public health threat, causing symptoms such as exhaustion, heat <br />cramps, and sunstroke if the Heat Index is over 90F. The National Weather Service <br />has developed a Heat Index Program Alert which gets triggered when high <br />temperatures are expected to exceed 105 to 110 for at least two consecutive days. <br />Heat emergencies occur when residents are subject to heat exhaustion and <br />heatstroke, and are more likely to occur in areas not adapted to heat and without air <br />conditioning, cooling centers, or vegetation to mediate heat impacts in exposed areas. <br />Certain populations are typically the most at risk during extreme heat emergencies, <br />including people with disabilities, chronic diseases, the elderly, and children.11 <br />Extreme heat emergencies typically build over time with cumulative effects. Because <br />of this, and the fact that they do not cause substantial physical damage to the built <br />environment, they do not elicit the same immediate response that other hazards do. <br />However, they claim many lives in comparison to other disasters. The California <br />Climate Adaptation Strategy, citing a California Energy Commission Study, states that <br />heat waves have claimed more lives in California than all other disaster events <br />combined.12 <br />Historic Extreme Heat <br />No heat emergencies in California have been declared a disaster at the state or federal <br />level between 1960 and 2008.13 The Spatial Hazard Events and Loss Data for the <br />United States estimates approximately 47 heat events in California during this time. <br /> <br />11 State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services <br />12 Messner, S. et al. (2009) <br />13 State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services <br />141