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95 <br /> <br />5.6.2 PROBABILTY OF FUTURE FIRE –CLIMATE INFLUENCED <br /> <br />Wildfire risk increases due to climate change because of higher temperatures and <br />longer dry periods over a longer fire seasons. Additionally, wildfire risk will also be <br />influenced by potential changes in vegetation.6 Research out of UC Merced has <br />projected the future fire risk, impacted by climate change, compared to existing fire <br />risk. In the Bay Area the results are mixed. The research projects some locations in <br />the East Bay and South Bay to exhibit decreased fire risk, while areas on the Peninsula <br />and North Bay exhibit a 150 percent increase in fire risk by 2085. <br /> <br />Generally, across the Bay Area there is fairly limited change in fire risk in the year <br />2050, with the greatest change in occurring between 2050 and 2085, especially in the <br />high emission scenario. The Cal Adapt data suggests that some jurisdictions might <br />have to adapt more aggressively compared to others. Figure 5-18 shows the <br />projected fire risk increase for the Bay Area with the greatest increase and decrease <br />areas highlighted. <br /> <br />The future fire risk model analyzes two primary variables: fuel availability and <br />flammability of fuel. In California the change in fire risk is a result of either a densely <br />forested ecosystem becoming drier, or a dry climate experiencing large vegetation <br />growth after a year of above average precipitation. In the first scenario the suite of <br />climate impacts (higher temperatures, less snow pack, earlier springs) result in <br />previously wet dense fuel ecosystems becoming dry – increasing the fire risk. In the <br />second ecosystem, dominated by grass and low density shrubs, the risk is often <br />unchanged or decreased because the availability of fuel is the governing variable for <br />fire risk, which remains unchanged or decreases as a result of projected <br />precipitation.7 These modeling characteristics are reflected in the Bay Area's future <br />fire risk map. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />6 California Climate Change Center, (2012) <br />7 Westerling, A.L., Bryant, B.P. (2008) <br />134