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CM City Clerk-City Council
CM City Clerk-City Council - Document Type
Staff Report
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5/16/2022
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Reso 2022-075 Investment Report for the Quater Ended March 31, 2022
(Approved by)
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Economic Update <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The Russian invasion into Ukraine and resulting Western sanctions on Russia have fueled volatility in financial markets.The <br />latest escalation has exacerbated inflationary pressures,particularly in energy and commodities,and has caused tightening <br />conditions in financial markets.While consumer spending and economic growth remain strong,we believe an extended <br />conflict in Eastern Europe along with elevated energy prices increases the risk of an economic slowdown later this year. <br />While we expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy,the FOMC has very little margin for error as it attempts to combat <br />inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Over the near-term, we expect financial market volatility to remain <br />elevated and conditions to remain tighter with heightened geopolitical risk,supply chain bottlenecks and persistent <br />inflation, and the Fed's pivot to less accommodative monetary policy. <br />The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)raised the federal funds rate by 0.25%at their March 16th meeting to a target <br />range of 0.25%to 0.50%.The Federal Reserve also ended their bond-buying program as expected in March,which included <br />the purchase of treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.Fed Chair Powell suggested that balance sheet runoff <br />could begin as early as their next meeting in May,sooner than previously anticipated,and that the pace of the unwind will <br />likely be fasterthan in the previous quantitative tightening cycle.The dotplot favors six additional rate hikes in 2022,which <br />implies a 25 basis point rate hike at each remaining meeting this year,but the Fed hasn’t ruled out incorporating one or <br />more 50 basis point hikes to address inflation.The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts higher Personal <br />Consumption Expenditure (PCE)inflation this year at 4.3%and a lower growth rate of 2.8%real GDP.We are anticipating <br />additional rates hikes by the Fed this year,but we do not believe that monetary policyis on a pre-set course and expect the <br />Fed's policy adjustments will depend on developments in the economy. <br />In March,yields increased dramatically and the curve continued to flatten.The 2-year Treasury yield increased 90 basis <br />points to 2.34%,the 5-year Treasury yield increased 74 basis points to 2.46%,and the 10-year Treasury yield increased 51 <br />basis points to 2.34%.The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield declined to zero at March month-end <br />versus 40 basis points at February month-end and 158 basis points one year ago.While the flat yield curve bears watching <br />over the longer run,the spread between 3-month and 10-year treasuries is still steep at about 185 basis points,which <br />indicates likely economic growth in the coming year. <br />3
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