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• Significance: Sales Tax is the largest <br />revenue source and most affected by <br />economic cycles, retail trends and <br />technology <br />AVENU INSIGHTS "MOST LIKELY" SALES TAX GROWTH <br />FY18 <br />FY19 <br />FY20 <br />FY21 <br />FY22 <br />FY23 <br />Business Sector <br />2.1% <br />3.4% <br />4.2% <br />3.2% <br />3.1% <br />3.0% <br />General Retail <br />-0.4% <br />1.8% <br />2.6% <br />3.4% <br />3.3% <br />3.2% <br />Food Products <br />4.5% <br />1.9% <br />1.0% <br />1.6% <br />1.5% <br />1.5% <br />Transportation <br />2.1% <br />9.1% <br />4.1% <br />5.1% <br />4.8% <br />4.6% <br />Construction <br />4.7% <br />-1.4% <br />-1.7% <br />3.6% <br />3.5% <br />3.4% <br />Business to Business <br />-5.4% <br />13.2% <br />7.9% <br />5.2% <br />5.0% <br />4.7% <br />State & County Pools <br />0.0% <br />1.2% <br />4.6% <br />3.8% <br />3.2% <br />3.1% <br />Totals <br />2.6% <br />2.2% <br />2.2% <br />3.3% <br />3.1% <br />3.0% <br />Growth rates are pre -recession <br />Growth rate varies widely, <br />averaged 2.73% over 18 years <br />Stronger Economy 3.2% average Raises Avenu Insights' growth estimate for <br />growth pooled allocations from 2.9% to 5% <br />Moderate Economy 2.9% average • Avenu Insights' most likely forecast through <br />growth FY21 (pre -recession) <br />Weaker Economy 2.6% average • Lowers food to 2.5%, building to 2%, and <br />growth auto to 1% <br />