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Packet 20230103
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3/21/2024 5:48:41 PM
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5/31/2023 11:15:25 AM
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CM City Clerk-City Council
CM City Clerk-City Council - Document Type
Staff Report
Document Date (6)
1/3/2023
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Economic Update <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Market volatility has intensified as financial conditions tighten and global central banks pursue monetary policies to combat <br />persistently high inflation and maintain financial market stability.Labor markets and consumer balance sheets remain <br />strong;however,inflation is weighing heavily on consumer sentiment and beginning to impact discretionary spending. <br />Corporate earnings have generally performed better than expected,but warnings are growing along with wider credit <br />spreads.While evidence of slowereconomic conditions has begun to mount,we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to <br />raise rates until a sustainable improvement in inflationary conditions has been achieved.Over the near-term,we expect <br />financial market volatility to remain intensified and conditions tighter with persistent inflation, geopolitical risk,and the <br />Fed's hawkish monetary policy. <br />As expected at the November 2nd meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the fed funds target rate by <br />75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time to a range of 3.75 –4.00%,the highest level since 2008.Federal Reserve <br />Chairman Powell reiterated that the risks of pausing too soon outweigh the risks of slower economic growth.He <br />commented that rates would likely reach higher levels than projected and that policy would need to remain restrictive for <br />some time.We believe the FOMC will continue to implement restrictive monetary policy until inflationary pressures <br />subside but will look for an opportunity to slow the pace of rate hikes as economic growth moderates. <br />In October,yields rose across the curve.The 2-year Treasury yield increased 20 basis points to 4.49%,the 5-year Treasury <br />yield rose 14 basis points to 4.23%, and the 10-year Treasury yield gained 22 basis points to 4.05%. The spread between the 2- <br />year Treasury yield and 10-year Treasury yield remainedinverted at -44 basis points at October month-end versus -45 basis <br />points at September month-end.The spread was a positive 106 basis points one year ago.The spread between 3-month <br />and 10-year treasuries inverted by -2 basis points in October compared to a positive 56-basis point spread in September. <br />The shape of the yield curve indicates that the probability of recession is increasing. <br />3
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