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Leading Indicators of Economic Activity <br />-25.0% <br />-20.0% <br />-15.0% <br />-10.0% <br />-5.0% <br />0.0% <br />5.0% <br />10.0% <br />15.0% <br />20.0% <br />Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) <br />RecessionYOY(%) Change-1.00 <br />-0.75 <br />-0.50 <br />-0.25 <br />0.00 <br />0.25 <br />0.50 <br />0.75 <br />1.00 <br />Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) <br />Recession <br />3 Month AverageThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)remained in negative territory for the sixteenth consecutive month at -0.4%in July <br />due to weak manufacturing orders,high interest rates,and a dip in consumer expectations. The index declined 7.5%year-over-year.The <br />consistent decline month-over-month continues to signal future contraction in the economy.The Chicago Fed National Activity Index <br />(CFNAI)increased to 0.12 in July from from a revised -0.33 in June.On a 3-month moving average basis,the CFNAI remained negative at - <br />0.13 in July, indicating a rate of growth below the historical average trend. <br />Source: The Conference Board Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago <br />8