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Environmental Impact Analysis Greenhouse Gas Emissions Environmental Impact Report 4.1-1 4.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions This section of the EIR analyzes greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the proposed project and potential impacts related to climate change. This section describes regional GHG emission sources and inventories, the regulatory framework applicable to GHG emissions, and evaluates potential project impacts related to GHG emissions as a result of project construction and operation. 4.1.1 Setting a. Overview of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases Climate change is the observed increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans along with other substantial changes in climate (such as wind patterns, precipitation, and storms) over an extended period of time. Climate change is the result of numerous, cumulative sources of GHG emissions contributing to the “greenhouse effect,” a natural occurrence which takes place in Earth’s atmosphere and helps regulate the temperature of the planet. Most of the radiation from the sun hits Earth’s surface and warms it. The surface, in turn, radiates heat back towards the atmosphere in the form of infrared radiation. Gases and clouds in the atmosphere trap and prevent some of this heat from escaping into space and re-radiate it in all directions. GHG emissions occur both naturally and from human activities, such as fossil fuel burning, decomposition of landfill wastes, raising livestock, deforestation, and some agricultural practices. GHGs produced by human activities include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Different types of GHGs have varying global warming potentials (GWP). The GWP of a GHG is the potential of a gas or aerosol to trap heat in the atmosphere over a specified timescale (generally, 100 years). Because GHGs absorb different amounts of heat, a common reference gas (CO2) is used to relate the amount of heat absorbed to the amount of the gas emitted, referred to as “carbon dioxide equivalent” (CO2e), which is the amount of GHG emitted multiplied by its GWP. Carbon dioxide has a 100-year GWP of one. By contrast, methane has a GWP of 30, meaning its global warming effect is 30 times greater than CO2 on a molecule per molecule basis (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2022).1 b. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories Based upon the California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 2000-2021, California produced 381.3 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e in 2021 (CARB 2023). Transportation is the major source of GHG in California, contributing 39 percent of the state’s total GHG emissions. Industrial operations are the second largest source, contributing 22 percent of the state’s GHG emissions. Specifically, emissions from the electricity sector continue to decline due to growing zero-GHG energy generation sources, dominated by solar (CARB 2023). The City of San Leandro conducted a citywide GHG emissions inventory while preparing its current Climate Action Plan, which was approved in July 2021 (City of San Leandro 2021). Emissions 1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (2022) Sixth Assessment Report determined that methane has a GWP of 30. However, the 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan published by the California Air Resources Board uses a GWP of 25 for methane, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (2007) Fourth Assessment Report. Therefore, this analysis utilizes a GWP of 25.