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CM City Clerk-City Council
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9/2/2025
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QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY <br />For the Quarter Ended March 31, 2025 <br />Multi-Asset Class Management <br />Inflation (U.S.): <br />•While inflation has fallen since its peak in 2022, <br />progress towards 2% target remains slow. <br />•The Fed has acknowledged higher inflation and <br />slower growth in their recent projections. Proposed <br />tariff policies may put pressure on input costs and <br />goods while demand side pullback could ease some <br />pressure. <br />Economic Growth (Global): <br />•U.S. GDP is expected to grow slower than in 2024. <br />Recession probability is rising,and we are closely <br />watching economic activity indicators. <br />•Economic growth outside the U.S. remains modest <br />with some improvement in Eurozone expected due <br />to increased fiscal spending. Tariffs pose growth <br />and inflation risks. <br />Monetary Policy (Global): <br />•Recent uncertainty had led Fed to continue to pause <br />on rate cuts so far this year. Market expects first <br />rate cut in June. Path and magnitude of rate cuts for <br />2025 remains uncertain. <br />•European Central Bank has continued to ease this <br />year while the Bank of Japan has delivered rate <br />hikes –both diverging from the Fed. <br />Labor Markets (U.S.): <br />•The labor market remains well-positioned,but <br />continued tariff uncertainty could lead to an increase <br />in unemployment rate. Federal layoffs make up a <br />smaller proportion of overall labor force but <br />sustained slowdown in pace of hiring as negative <br />impact on economic growth expectations. <br />Consumer Spending (U.S.): <br />•Broad consumer metrics are supportive of economic <br />strength. A growing divergence among consumers <br />exists as lower-income cohorts continue to feel <br />more strain due to the higher overall level of prices. <br />•An unexpected material deterioration of labor <br />market conditions is the biggest risk to consumer <br />spending. <br />Financial Conditions (U.S.): <br />•Even after the recent bout of volatility, risk,and <br />credit conditions still point to the stability of financial <br />conditions. <br />•While our base case is not for a dramatic shift in <br />conditions, the uncertainty associated with tariff <br />policies could lead to pullback in financial conditions <br />in the near-term. <br />Political/Policy Risks: <br />•Geopolitical risks continue to remain elevated. <br />Prospects of peace deal in Middle East and <br />Russia/Ukraine are positives,while reciprocity in <br />global tariffs and strained relationships with major <br />trading partners for the U.S. due to ongoing tariffs <br />cause economic and political uncertainty. <br />Valuations: <br />•U.S. equity experienced increased volatility in Q1, <br />and credit markets widened from historical lows – <br />both still remain expensive relative to history and <br />are susceptible to increased economic uncertainty. <br />•International equities look attractive but continued <br />economic and geopolitical uncertainty is leading to <br />increased volatility. <br />Corporate Fundamentals: <br />•Earnings growth expectations are positive across <br />global equities, but tariff impact need to closely <br />monitored for any impact on profit margins. <br />•In the U.S., any tax cuts/deregulation initiatives are <br />positives while near team headwinds from tariff <br />uncertainty could impact both earnings growth <br />expectations and profit margins negatively. <br />Factors to Consider Over the Next 6-12 Months <br />Statements and opinions expressed about the next 6-12 months were developed based on our independent research with information obtained from Bloomberg. The views expressed within <br />this material constitute the perspective and judgment of PFM Asset Management, a division of U.S. Bancorp Asset Management, Inc., at the time of distribution (March 31, 2025) and are <br />subject to change. Information is obtained from sources generally believed to be reliable and available to the public; however, we cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability. <br />Stance Unfavorable <br />to Risk Assets <br />Stance Favorable <br />to Risk Assets Current outlook Outlook one quarter ago PositiveSlightly <br />Positive <br />NeutralSlightly <br />Negative <br />Negative <br /> For Institutional Investor or Investment Professional Use Only - This material is not for inspection by, distribution to, or quotation to the general public.2.8
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