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Reso 2025-133 OPEB & Pension Trust Report
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Reso 2025-133 OPEB & Pension Trust Report
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CM City Clerk-City Council - Document Type
Resolution
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10/20/2025
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QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY <br />For the Quarter Ended June 30, 2025 <br />Multi-Asset Class Management <br />THE ECONOMY <br />• In the first quarter, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a <br />seasonally adjusted annualized rate of -0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction <br />since 2022. This figure was due in large part to a surge in imports as companies <br />hoped to get ahead of tariffs, however other areas including consumption also saw <br />some softening over the quarter. Outside the U.S., some developed countries saw <br />similar contraction such as Japan, which saw (annualized) GDP decline by -0.2% <br />over the quarter; while the Eurozone grew at annualized rate of 2.5%. <br />• The U.S. unemployment rate held relatively steady over the quarter with a <br />reading of 4.1% in June. The latest initial jobless claims for the week ending June <br />28 ticked slightly higher to 233,000 in June, while the outstanding claims rose <br />to approximately 2 million as unemployed workers struggled to find suitable <br />employment. Businesses appear to be in a relative “low hire, low fire” mode. <br />• Inflation remained relatively flat in the second quarter. Headline inflation (CPI) grew <br />at a year-over-year rate of 2.4% in May after a slight dip in April. Core CPI, which <br />excludes volatile food and energy, grew at 2.8% on an annual basis, the lowest rate <br />since March 2021, however it has been growing at this pace since March. <br />U.S. Unemployment and Monthly Average Continued Claims <br />Source: Bloomberg. <br />U.S. GDP Growth <br />Source: Bloomberg. Light blue bars indicate actual numbers; dark blue bars indicate fore- <br />casted estimates. <br /> - <br /> 1,000,000 <br /> 2,000,000 <br /> 3,000,000 <br /> 4,000,000 <br /> 5,000,000 <br /> 6,000,000 <br />0% <br />1% <br />2% <br />3% <br />4% <br />5% <br />6% <br />7% <br />8% <br />Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 <br />Monthly Average Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)Unemployment Rate (Left) <br />-0.5% <br />2.1% <br />0.8%1.2%1.5% <br />-2% <br />-1% <br />0% <br />1% <br />2% <br />3% <br />4% <br />5% <br />6% <br />7% <br />8%Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q12021 2022 2023 2024 2025QoQ% Change, SA, AnnualizedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics. <br />0% <br />1% <br />2% <br />3% <br />4% <br />5% <br />6% <br />7% <br />8% <br />9% <br />10% <br />Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24YoY% ChangeCore CPI CPI <br />U.S. Inflation Rate <br />Seasonally Adjusted (SA) <br />2.2 <br />Resolution No. 2025-133 Exhibit A Page 5 of 26
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