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Reso 2025-166 OPEB & Investments Report
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Reso 2025-166 OPEB & Investments Report
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CM City Clerk-City Council
CM City Clerk-City Council - Document Type
Resolution
Document Date (6)
12/15/2025
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QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY <br />For the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025 <br />Multi-Asset Class Management <br />CommentsOur Q4 2025 Investment OutlookAsset Class <br />•Equity market rally on the back of trade deals led us to maintain neutral <br />positioning through Q3 unwinding defensive stance taken in Q2. <br />•Looking ahead, we remain neutral at a time when easing monetary and <br />fiscal policies and strong corporate earnings are positives while higher <br />inflation, softening labor market, tariff/trade tensions (effective tariff rate <br />currently at ~20%) and elevated valuations lead to some caution. <br />•Small-caps have been rallying recently in anticipation of Fed rate cuts, <br />higher liquidity and improving sentiment, reaching their all time high at <br />the end of Q3. We expect to remain neutral until we see some recovery <br />across employment and manufacturing indicators. <br />U.S. Equities <br />Large-Caps <br />Small-Caps <br />•International equities have posted strong returns this year. Valuations are <br />attractive relative to U.S.equities,but multiples have continued to creep <br />higher this year as earnings growth has not kept the pace. <br />•Across Europe and China, we believe that there are structural/geopolitical <br />issues that need to be addressed for long-term sustained outperformance. <br />•Fed rate cuts, weaker USD, improved sentiment and continued stimulus in <br />China led to strong performance for EM equities but tariff driven <br />uncertainty remains in place. <br />Non-U.S. Equities <br />Developed Markets <br />Emerging Markets <br />•Fed cut rates by 25 bps in September for the first time in 2025 and <br />provided guidance for two more rate cuts this year. <br />•Yield curve has steepened in anticipation of the rate cuts. We expect long <br />term rates to be range-bound due to inflation expectations and fiscal debt <br />concerns. <br />•We remain duration neutral at this time. Absolute yield levels look <br />attractive even as credit spreads are closer to historical lows. We are <br />neutral to credit sectors at this time given the tighter spreads even as <br />corporate fundamentals remain strong. <br />Fixed Income <br />Core Bonds <br />Investment Grade Credit <br />High Yield Credit <br />•REIT performance has been sensitive to the long-term yields and have <br />recently shown recovery in performance. Rate cuts and period of slow but <br />continued growth are expected to be tailwinds. <br />•Improving AI sentiment bodes well for data center buildout and utilities <br />are long-term tailwinds for listed infrastructure. <br />Diversifying Assets <br />Listed Real Estate <br />Listed Global Infrastructure <br />Investment Strategy Overview <br />The view expressed within this material constitute the perspective and judgment of PFM Asset Management, a division of U.S. Bancorp Asset Management, Inc., at the time of distribution <br />(September 30, 2025) and are subject to change. <br />Current outlook Outlook one quarter ago <br />PositiveSlightly <br />PositiveNeutralSlightly <br />NegativeNegative <br />2.9 <br />Exhibit A <br />Resolution No. 2025-166 Page 12
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