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III. Forecast for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Based on the community and municipal operations emissions inventories developed for San Leandro lor the base year 2005, the next step was to forecast future emissions for the year 2020. The emission forecast represents a husiness-as-usual prediction of how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may change in the City of San Leandro over time for the community sector. The forecast projects the growth (or reduction) in greenhouse gas emissions that will occur in a given future year. Projections arc based on the assumption that energy consumption will grow as population increases. For the community the forecast was conducted by applying population growth factors to San Leandro's base year residential, commercial/industrial, and transportation data. For the municipal government analysis, it is assumed that energy consumption will grow as new buildings (as specified in the notes) are added to municipal government operations. Table (5) provides an emissions sUlllmary for San Leandro's base year and forecast year. Table (5): San Leandro's Emissions Summary Base'X!~t___.:.--_w___.~.~__.._"_.-_-----_?OO-~-~.._---____ . ....___--.J..Qg_~__ Ind~e<\tors used to generate forecast 0.67% (Population growth Additional municipal operation . rate based on ABACi 2000 facilities and 2020data) 569,528 Quantity of eC02 emissions in base ear tons)' .. . .X:?Eec~st year _,________._,__.____'~ ..",3_Q.~L_____~,_____ Business-as-usual projection of 623,784 eCq3~missions i!'!,}020 (tonsl~_~_____.__ .Pro'eeted Increase in Emissions . 9.5% Source CACP Moclel Output and ABACi 7,372 2020 _U".""'"~~_____ .. 7,799 5 . grYo Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for setting an emissions reduction target, since the arnount ofGHG emissions San Leandro pledges to reduce will be derived from projected emissions. IV. Conclusion This baseline greenhouse gas emissions inventory report represents a "snapshot" of the greenhouse gases that the City of San Leandro emits in its base ycar, 2005, on a community-wide level and a municipal level. The report also approximates the greenhouse gases that the City will cmit in the year 2020. This information will be used to help the City adopt an emissions reduction target and develop a climate action plan. The climate action plan consists of policies and measures that, when implemented, will serve to get the City to its target. The inventory also serves to inform the City regarding the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the fuel consumption in the Commercial/Industrial sector is the single biggest source of emissions, contributing 41 % of total emissions. The inventory also reveals the fact that in San Leandro, like in most cities, the municipal government emissions represent a small percentage of community-wide emissions, in this case only 1.29%. That being said, by proactively reducing emissions generated by its own activities, the San Leandro government City of San Leandro Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 13