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Mr. John J. Jermanis City of San Leandro May 31,2000 Page 5 SEDWAY GROUP Real Estate and Urban Economics allowed. Any development within the Bene jurisdiction requires a use permit. As part of any development plan, the BenC requires public pedestrian access to the waterfront. In addition, any development at the Marina requires approval by the Anny Corps of Engineers and the Regional Water Quality Control Board, although these agencies do not typically prohibit certain uses. One agency, the State Lands Commission, which holds tide and submerged lands (including lands created through landfill) in the Tidelands Trust for the public, actual1y prohibits certain uses such as non-maritime office and residential. However, according to the City of San Leandro, the Marina area is not part of the Trust. Based on information provided by the City 'of San Leandro, there are no other significant potential regulatory constraints rel~ted to development at the Marina. REGIONAL FERRIES INITIATIVE A possible influencing factor on the uses at the San Leandro Marina is the proposed regional ferry system. The Marina's potential as a ferry terminal location for the proposed Bay Area Water Transit system has been evaluated twice, with mixed findings. A 1992 report issued for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) performed a cursory analysis of the Marina as part of an evaluation of seventeen potential bay ferry routes. A potential route from San Leandro to San Francisco was considered but deemed infeasible at that time. It was determined that ridership for the San Leandro service was constrained by the fact that most of the served population is located east of Interstate 880, and as a result, is already served by BART. The evaluation concluded that "ferry service from San Leandro would only be feasible if higher density residential areas developed near the San Leandro Marina.,,3 In 1998, MTC updated the report, but did not re-evaluate this route. A report issued by the Bay Area Council in February 1999 yielded different results.4 Over 60 potential terminal sites were original1y considered and 48 were evaluated, characterized and ranked. The San Leandro Marina location was one of ten locations given a Level 1 Demand rank, correlating to the greatest existing demand and immediate potential. The report forecasts sufficient demand for three routes from the San Leandro Marina (Redwood City, Moffett Field and potentially San Francisco), based on existing and Phase I demand by water-transit passengers over the 2000 to 2010 time period. The report estimates a daily ridership of 1,000 people for each of these routes. State legislation took effect January 1, 2000 creating the Bay Area Water Transit Authority (BAWTA). BAWTA's primary task will be to prepare a comprehensive plan in order to secure funding. This comprehensive plan should be completed by the end of 2001 and will determine the next round of ferry improvements. Currently, it is expected that the Marina location will be evaluated as part of this comprehensive plan. Presently, it is stil1 very speculative as to when, if ever, the San Leandro Marina becomes a portal for a regional ferry system. Thus, any planning efforts for the Marina should consider this potential but not rely on it becoming a reality. If in fact the Marina is developed with a ferry terminal, there are two certain outcomes, both of which will benefit the Marina: 1) the profile of the Marina will certainly be raised regionally; and 2) there will be substantially more automobile traffic on the key routes to the Marina, which will in turn spur infrastructure improvements to upgrade access.s Land uses expected 3 San Francisco Bay Area Regional Ferry Plan: Final Report Executive Summary, Pacific Transit Management Corp. and Associated Subconsultants, September 1992. 4 Bay Area Water Transit Initiative: Vision and Conceptual Design, Bay Area Council, February 1999. S There will also likely be neighborhood opposition to this additional commuter traffic. .0