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December 21, 2009 Section 2: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast The forecast projects the growth (or reduction) in greenhouse gas emissions that will occur in a given future year. Projections are based on the assumption that energy consumption will grow as population increases. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) forecasts a 0.67% annual population growth rate from 2005 through 2020, translating to a 10.4 percent total increase from 2005 to 2020. For the community analysis, the business-as-usual emissions forecast was estimated by applying this population growth rate to San Leandro’s 2005 base year residential, commercial/industrial, and transportation emissions. For the municipal government analysis, no growth was anticipated in the municipal government operations. Additional building area for a new senior center and the potential expanded police administrative building is accounted for in this assumption. Furthermore, given the economic conditions in the 2007 – 2009 timeframe and recent City budget reductions, the forecast includes the assumption of no employee growth. Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for developing the Climate Action Plan, since GHG emissions typically increase in future years without a concerted effort to implement emissions reduction projects. One must compare future reductions with future emissions levels, not current levels. Therefore, in developing the Climate Action Plan, the City of San Leandro needs to take into account projected growth in emissions. Figure 5 below illustrates how the business-as-usual emissions are estimated to increase, thus widening the emissions reductions needed by 2020. Figure 5. San Leandro GHG Reduction Target (25% below 2005 levels by 2020) Page 15