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B. Key Assumptions and Analysis Since the fiscal impact analysis is based upon an assessment of future circumstances, the assumptions that are used to make estimates of future conditions are fundamental to the conclusions. The key assumptions of the analysis are as follows: ■ Phase 1 Medical Center Development Program — The Phase 1 development program has been based on the program in the Administrative Draft EIR, with adjustments provided by Kaiser Foundation Hospitals. ■ Future Phases of Medical Center— Given the uncertainty regarding the timing, nature, and scope of potential future expansion to the Medical Center, the fiscal impact analysis has not evaluated the impacts of any future phases. The analysis will be updated if, and when, a more definitive program is being considered. ■ Timing — The analysis evaluates the impacts of Phase 1 upon completion and stabilization, using 2009 dollars. ■ Employment— The State Department of Finance estimates the City of San Leandro's 2009 employment base at 43,200 jobs. Kaiser Permanent has estimated that Phase 1 will provide 2,325 full time equivalent jobs. (Table 4). ■ Resident Equivalents — The estimate of cost impacts from General Government, a portion of Public Works costs, Engineering and Transportation, and Organizational Services use a modified per capita measure known as "resident equivalents." This approach combines residents and employees to form a single service population to drive cost projection. The resident equivalents approach weights an employee as .33 of a resident, such that approximately three employees are viewed as having the same impact as one resident. Using this methodology, the Medical Center is estimated to generate approximately 767 resident equivalents (Table 4). Assessed Property Values —As a non-profit public benefit corporation, Kaiser Foundation Hospitals is exempt from the payment of property taxes related to non-profit use. Therefore, the Medical Center is assumed to have a zero assessed value. KMA has estimated the Medical Center's assessed value as if it were subject to property taxes based on the estimated direct construction costs. For the "opportunity cost" scenarios, assessed values have been estimated based on non-residential building costs provided by Marshall & Swift's building cost catalogue. The assessed value assumptions are provided on Appendix Tables A-3, B — 3, B-4, B-5, and C-3). ■ Motor Vehicle License Fees and Property Tax In -Lieu of Vehicle License Fees — Motor Vehicle License Fees and Property Tax In -Lieu of Vehicle License Fees are estimated in accordance with SB 1096, based on data from the California State Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. Page 15 \\Sf-fs1\wp\19\19096\19096.036\003-001.doc; March 2009