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SAN LEANDRO SHORELINE DEVELOPMENT DRAFT EIR CITY OF SAN LEANDRO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2014 Update to the Scoping Plan CARB recently completed a five-year update to the 2008 Scoping Plan, as required by AB 32. The final Update to the Scoping Plan was released in May 2014, and CARB adopted it at the May 22, 2014 board hearing. The Update to the Scoping Plan defines CARB's climate change priorities for the next five years and lays the groundwork to reach post -2020 goals in Executive Orders S-03-05 and B-16-2012. The update includes the latest scientific findings related to climate change and its impacts, including short-lived climate pollutants. The GHG target identified in the 2008 Scoping Plan is based on IPCC's GWPs identified in the Second and Third Assessment Reports (see Table 4.6-1). IPCC's Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports identified more recent GWP values based on the latest available science. CARB recalculated the 1990 GHG emission levels with the updated GWPs in the Fourth Assessment Report, and the 427 MMT CO2e 1990 emissions level and 2020 GHG emissions limit, established in response to AB 32, is slightly higher, at 431 MMT CO2e.24 The update highlights California's progress in meeting the near-term 2020 GHG emission reduction goals defined in the original 2008 Scoping Plan. As identified in the Update to the Scoping Plan, California is on track to meeting the goals of AB 32. However, the Update to the Scoping Plan also addresses the State's longer-term GHG goals within a post -2020 element. The post -2020 element provides a high-level view of a long-term strategy for meeting the 2050 GHG goals, including a recommendation for the State to adopt a mid-term target. According to the Update to the Scoping Plan, local government reduction targets should chart a reduction trajectory that is consistent with, or exceeds, the trajectory created by statewide goals.21 According to the Update to the Scoping Plan, reducing emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels will require a fundamental shift to efficient, clean energy in every sector of the economy. Progressing toward California's 2050 climate targets will require significant acceleration of GHG reduction rates. Emissions from 2020 to 2050 will have to decline several times faster than the rate needed to reach the 2020 emissions limit. 26 Senate Bill 375 In 2008, Senate Bill 375 (SB 375), the Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act, was adopted to connect the GHG emissions reduction targets established in the 2008 Scoping Plan for the transportation sector to local land use decisions that affect travel behavior. Its intention is to reduce GHG emissions from light-duty trucks and automobiles (excluding emissions associated with goods movement) by aligning regional long-range transportation plans, investments, and housing allocations to local land use planning to reduce VMT and vehicle trips. Specifically, SB 375 required CARB to establish GHG emissions reduction targets for each of the 18 metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs). The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) is the MPO for the nine -county San Francisco Bay Area 24 California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2014. Proposed First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan: Building on the Framework, http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/draft_proposed_first_update.pdf, May 15, 2014. 25 California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2014. Proposed First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan: Building on the Framework, http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/draft_ proposed_ first_update.pdf, May 15, 2014. 26 California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2014. Proposed First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan: Building on the Framework, http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/draft_ proposed_ first_update.pdf, May 15, 2014. PLACEWORKS 4.6-11