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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County <br />June 2016 . MRW & Associates, LLC <br />Table of Contents <br />Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. i  <br />Loads and Forecast ........................................................................................................................... i  <br />CCA Power Supplies ........................................................................................................................ iii  <br />Local Renewable Development ........................................................................................................... iii  <br />Rate Results .................................................................................................................................... iv  <br />Scenario 1 (Simple Renewable Compliance) ....................................................................................... iv  <br />Scenario 2 (Accelerated RPS) ............................................................................................................... v  <br />Scenario 3 (80% RPS by 2021) .............................................................................................................. v  <br />Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................................................................................................ vii  <br />Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................................................... ix  <br />Macroeconomic and Job Impacts ..................................................................................................... x  <br />Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................................................ xii  <br />Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... xiii  <br />Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1  <br />What is a CCA? ................................................................................................................................. 1  <br />Assessing CCA Feasibility.................................................................................................................. 1  <br />Chapter 2: Economic Study Methodology and Key Inputs ........................................................ 3  <br />Alameda County Loads and CCA Load Forecasts ............................................................................... 1  <br />Energy Efficiency .............................................................................................................................. 4  <br />CCA Supplies .................................................................................................................................... 6  <br />Power Supply Cost Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 9  <br />Locally‐Sited and Developed Renewables .......................................................................................... 11  <br />Other CCA Supply Costs ...................................................................................................................... 11  <br />PG&E Rate and Exit Fee Forecasts .................................................................................................. 12  <br />PG&E Bundled Generation Rates ....................................................................................................... 12  <br />PG&E Exit Fee Forecast ...................................................................................................................... 13  <br />Pro Forma Elements and CCA Costs of Service ................................................................................ 13  <br />Pro Forma Elements ........................................................................................................................... 14  <br />Startup Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 15  <br />Energy Efficiency Program Costs ........................................................................................................ 15  <br />Administrative and General Cost Inputs ............................................................................................ 16  <br />Cost of Service Analysis and Reserve Fund ........................................................................................ 16  <br />Chapter 3: Cost and Benefit Analysis ..................................................................................... 17  <br />Scenario 1 (Renewable Compliance) .............................................................................................. 17  <br />Rate Differentials ................................................................................................................................ 17  <br />Residential Bill Impacts ...................................................................................................................... 18  <br />Greenhouse Gas Emissions ................................................................................................................ 18  <br />Scenario 2 (Accelerated RPS) .......................................................................................................... 19  <br />Rate Differentials ................................................................................................................................ 19  <br />Residential Bill Impacts ...................................................................................................................... 20  <br />GHG Emissions ................................................................................................................................... 21  <br />Scenario 3 (80% RPS by 2021) ........................................................................................................ 22  <br />Rate Differentials ................................................................................................................................ 22