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<br />26 <br />Figure A2. Sea Level Rise and Extreme Tide Matrix (Hydrodynamic Zone 3) <br /> <br />Source: Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District and BCDC, 2015. 47 <br /> <br />Temperature and Precipitation <br />Temperature and precipitation projections were derived from a statistically downscaled Bias Corrected <br />Constructed Analog (BCCA) dataset,48 from which Four Twenty Seven extrapolated temperature and <br />precipitation indices. Statistically downscaled data was used to better represent local conditions, and <br />an ensemble of 19 global circulation models was used to reduce individual model uncertainties. <br />Probabilistic estimates were generated for extreme indicators using Gaussian distribution, with the <br />most likely value falling between the 25th and 75th percentiles. For indicators showing changes to <br />average precipitation and temperature, an envelope-based approach was used by bounding the range <br />of models based on their departure from the historical mean. Temperature and precipitation indicators <br />have been parametrized to show future trends in terms of averages and extremes at the city-level <br />(approximately 12 x 12 km). All future values (2020-2060) were amended with probabilistic estimates <br />and compared to a historical baseline (1970-2000). <br />The historical baseline is a climate model history intended to capture climate conditions experienced <br />from 1970-2000, but not to predict the weather conditions on any given day, month, or year. For this <br />baseline period, the climate models were run with an emissions scenario representative of the observed <br />history from those past years but with the same physics and configurations as in future-year runs. This <br /> <br />47 Alameda County Flood Control and Water Conservation District and BCDC. (2015). Adapting to Rising Tides: Alameda County <br />Shoreline Vulnerability Assessment Final Report. <br />48 Reclamation. (2013). 'Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections: Release of Downscaled CMIP5 <br />Climate Projections, Comparison with preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs', prepared by the U.S. Department of <br />the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Services Center, Denver, Colorado. <br />70