Laserfiche WebLink
<br />27 <br />enables comparison of like historical and future model data to better establish the magnitude of likely <br />future changes. <br />The models used scenarios from the IPCC. The RCP 8.5 represents the most minimal greenhouse gas <br />mitigation effort and high emissions, resulting in the largest increase in radiative forcing and warming, <br />while RCP 4.5 is considered a moderate greenhouse gas mitigation scenario where climate action limits <br />the amount of global emissions.49 <br />Rainfall Induced Landslides <br />The USGS conducted a survey of landslide risk in the San Francisco Bay Area leading up to the 1997-1998 <br />El Niño event. Today, these maps are used to predict future landslides since these events are generally <br />believed likely to occur within and around the places where they have previously taken place.50 <br />Geographic locations are assigned risk based on a five-point scale from surficial deposits (low risk) to <br />mostly landslide (high risk). Areas which have experienced few landslides have a mid-level risk for <br />landslide events. <br />Wildfires <br />CAL FIRE produces Fire Hazard Severity Zone maps to determine the potential exposure of wildland and <br />urban properties to wildfire based on vegetation, topography, and dangerous fire characteristics such as <br />crown fire potential and ember production and movement. Fire hazard is a metric for determining <br />physical fire behavior in order to predict the amount of damage a fire in a certain location is likely to <br />cause and is classified as Very High, High or Moderate. The Fire Hazard Severity Zones are based on the <br />evaluation of the likelihood that an area will burn and how, without consideration of the risk for <br />property damage.51 <br /> <br /> <br />49 IPCC. (2014). Scenario Process for AR5. Accessed at: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html <br />50 Pike, R.J. (1997). San Francisco Bay Region Landslide Folio Part D. USGS. Accessed at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1997/of97- <br />745/of97-745d.html <br />51 CalFIRE. Wildland Hazard and Building Codes: Fire Hazard Severity Zone Development. Accessed at: <br />http://www.fire.ca.gov/fire_prevention/fire_prevention_wildland_zones_development <br />71