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MAJOR GENERAL FUND REVENUES <br /> <br />SALES AND USE TAXES, cont. <br /> <br />Analysis <br />Factors that affect the revenue generated by Sales Tax include: <br /> Overall economic growth in the Bay Area and competition from neighboring cities; <br /> Growth rate of specific dominant commercial/industrial sectors in San Leandro; <br /> San Leandro’s business attraction/retention efforts, especially on retail <br />establishments; and <br /> Catalog and Internet sales <br /> <br />Forecast <br />The overall sales tax growth for 2019-20 and 2020-21 are 3.4% and -1.1%, respectively. <br />Information received from the City’s sales tax consultant, MuniServices, indicates a <br />potential economic downturn in 2020-21 and 2021-22. Thereafter, the forecast reflects <br />increase in revenues ranging from 3% to over 5% with another possible slowing of the <br />economy in 2027-28 based on the “most likely” forecast scenario presented by <br />MuniServices in February 2019. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Actual Projected <br />2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 <br />Sales Taxes 31.1$ 31.7$ 32.4$ 32.0$ 31.8$ 33.5$ 35.2$ 37.1$ 38.2$ 39.3$ 38.6$ 38.7$ <br />Transaction Taxes 11.9 11.9 12.7 12.5 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.1 15.6 15.3 15.3 <br />Total Collections 43.0$ 43.6$ 45.1$ 44.6$ 44.4$ 46.7$ 49.2$ 51.8$ 53.3$ 54.9$ 53.8$ 54.1$ <br />$ Change 1.3 0.6 1.5 (0.5) (0.2) 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.6 1.6 (1.1) 0.3 <br />% Change 3.0% 1.3% 3.4% -1.1% -0.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 3.0% 3.0% -2.0% 0.5% <br />Proposed Projected Revenue <br />SALES TAX & <br />TRANSACTION <br />TAX <br />(Dollars in Millions) <br />53 <br />75