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Public Review Draft <br />Page ES-2 San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan <br />GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY AND FORECAST <br />A GHG inventory is a summary of the GHG emissions generated by activities that take place within <br />a community. The GHG emissions inventory and the GHG forecast lay the groundwork for the 2021 <br />CAP, which seeks to align the City’s GHG reduction efforts with State-recommended targets. The <br />City is committed to achieving emissions reductions of 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and <br />80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. <br />The 2021 CAP contains GHG inventories for the years 2005 (updated from the inventory included <br />in the 2009 CAP to take into account the latest science in GHG accounting and emissions factors), <br />2010, 2015, and 2017. These inventories assess emissions produced by the transportation, energy, <br />waste, off-road, and water and wastewater sectors, as well as emissions associated with BART <br />operations and emissions reductions attributable to biomass sequestration. <br />GHG emissions have declined steadily from 2005 levels. In the base year of 2005, the City of San <br />Leandro emitted approximately 720,990 MTCO2e. Transportation was the largest contributor to <br />community emissions, emitting approximately 50 percent of the city’s total. In 2017, GHG emissions <br />totaled 573,580 MTCO2e, a decrease of 20 percent from 2005. Transportation remained the largest <br />source of GHG emissions, accounting for approximately 60 percent of the city’s total. <br />A GHG emissions forecast uses estimates of future community population and job growth to predict <br />how emissions would grow over time if no action is taken at the federal, state, or local or regional <br />level to reduce them. The CAP update includes a GHG forecast for the calendar years 2020, 2030, <br />and 2050, relying on growth assumptions from the California Department of Finance and <br />Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Relative to 2017 emissions, San Leandro’s GHG <br />emissions are expected to increase by approximately 21 percent by 2050 if no action is taken to <br />reduce emissions. <br /> <br />42