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Public Review Draft <br />Page 28 San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan <br />GHG FORECAST <br />A forecast of future GHG emissions helps to ensure consistency with the guidelines for a Qualified <br />GHG Reduction Strategy put forward by BAAQMD. A forecast allows elected officials, City staff, <br />and community members to identify the amount of GHG reductions necessary to achieve future <br />GHG reduction targets, and it can help support long-range community planning efforts. The CAP <br />update includes a forecast for the calendar years 2020, 2030, and 2050. <br />Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for developing the CAP since GHG emissions <br />typically increase in future years as population grows without a concerted effort to implement <br />emissions reduction projects. One must compare future reductions with future emissions levels, not <br />current levels. Therefore, in developing the 2021 CAP, the City of San Leandro needs to take into <br />account projected growth in emissions. <br />A GHG emissions forecast estimates how emissions would grow over time if no action is taken at <br />the federal, State, or local level to reduce them. A set of indicators determines the extent of growth <br />that could occur and how resulting emissions may change. An emissions forecast was prepared for <br />San Leandro using the best available information regarding indicators and growth rates. The <br />forecast relies on growth assumptions from the California Department of Finance and the <br />Association of Bay Area Government (ABAG) that were approved by City staff, shown in Table 4. <br />Activity data rates in the forecast, such as household energy use, vehicle miles traveled, or per <br />person waste disposal, are based on the 2017 emissions inventory. <br />Table 4 San Leandro 2017, 2020, 2030, and 2050 Growth Indicators <br />Indicator 2017 2020 2030 2050 <br />Percentage <br />Change, <br />2005–2050 <br />Source <br />Population 90,560 98,370 103,910 111,260 36% Dept of Finance/ <br />Census/ABAG <br />Households 33,460 35,150 36,180 37,720 22% Dept of Finance/ <br />Census/ABAG <br />Jobs 50,310 54,700 57,830 61,450 57% California EDD/ <br />US Census/ABAG <br />Service <br />Population* <br />140,870 153,070 161,740 172,710 43% <br />* Service population is the sum of the residential population and number of jobs <br /> <br />Each indicator is used to project future emissions for the following sectors: <br /> Households: Residential energy use, off-road equipment (lawn and garden equipment, pleasure <br />craft, and recreational equipment) <br />72