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2. GHG Inventory and Forecast
<br />San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan Page 29
<br /> Jobs: Nonresidential energy use, commercial vehicle use, off-road equipment (entertainment
<br />equipment, industrial equipment, light commercial equipment, Transport Refrigeration Units)
<br /> Service Population: Solid waste generation, BART, water and wastewater
<br /> Change in Service Population: Off-road equipment (construction and mining equipment)
<br />Residential population is not used as an indicator by itself but is combined with jobs to calculate
<br />service population. Emissions from direct access electricity (an option that allows eligible
<br />customers, usually larger industrial or institutional customers, to purchase electricity directly from
<br />third-party providers), point sources, and freight trains are held constant and are not projected to
<br />change over time. Construction and mining emissions, part of the off-road equipment sector, are
<br />forecast by the change in service population. Landfill emissions are based on decomposition rates
<br />provided by CARB and are not forecast by an indicator. Biomass sequestration is associated with
<br />the amount of forested land and level of development in San Leandro. Because the City’s size is
<br />not expected to change and there are no plans to develop land currently designated as open space,
<br />the amount of GHGs absorbed by biomass sequestration is not projected to change.
<br />The project team applied these indicators to forecast future GHG indicators. Relative to 2017
<br />emissions, San Leandro’s GHG emissions are expected to increase by approximately 21 percent
<br />by 2050 if no action is taken to reduce emissions. The forecast assumes that each person in San
<br />Leandro will continue to contribute the same amount of GHG emissions to the community’s total,
<br />so that the amount of GHGs released increases in step with population growth of the community.
<br />As with the other forecast years, the 2020 forecast is a projection based on 2017 emissions and
<br />anticipated growth levels and does not reflect the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic or any other
<br />specific measured activity in 2020. Table 5 shows the forecast results.
<br />Table 5 San Leandro Community GHG Forecast, 2017–2050
<br />Sector 2017
<br />MTCO2e
<br />2020
<br />MTCO2e
<br />2030
<br />MTCO2e
<br />2050
<br />MTCO2e
<br />Change in
<br />Emissions,
<br />2017–2050
<br />Transportation 344,290 374,140 395,360 421,880 23%
<br />Nonresidential energy 88,620 96,350 101,870 108,250 22%
<br />Residential energy 73,320 77,020 80,650 82,660 13%
<br />Waste 34,860 37,880 40,030 42,740 23%
<br />Off-road 26,960 38,770 34,840 30,540 13%
<br />BART 3,710 4,030 4,260 4,550 23%
<br />Water and wastewater 1,820 1,970 2,090 2,230 23%
<br />Total 573,580 630,160 659,100 692,850 21%
<br />Biomass
<br />sequestration *
<br />-530 -530 -530 -530 0%
<br />* This is an informational item that is not included in the community-wide total.
<br />Due to rounding, the total value may not equal the sum of individual rows.
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