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San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan Page 31 3. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment BACKGROUND A vulnerability assessment is an analysis of how climate change is likely to affect a community. The vulnerability assessment in this CAP looks at the anticipated hazards and other public safety concerns that may be created or exacerbated by climate change and how these conditions have the potential to harm people, buildings and infrastructure, ecosystems, and other assets in San Leandro. Just as the GHG inventory and forecast provide a foundation for identifying future GHG emission reductions, the vulnerability assessment helps support future efforts to improve community resilience and adapt to changing climate conditions. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROCESS The vulnerability assessment primarily follows the recommended process in the California Adaptation Planning Guide, published in 2020 by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. This includes a four-step process: (1) characterizing the City’s exposure to current and projected climate hazards; (2) identifying potential sensitivities and potential impacts to City populations and assets; (3) evaluating the current ability of the populations and assets to cope with climate impacts, also referred to as its adaptive capacity; and (4) identifying priority vulnerabilities based on systematic scoring. These steps are shown in Figure 7 and described in greater detail in Appendix B. Figure 7 California Adaptation Planning Guide Recommended Model The vulnerability assessment expands on a previous vulnerability assessment, the “San Leandro Climate Hazard Assessment,” prepared for San Leandro in 2017. The vulnerability assessment incorporates the results of this 2017 analysis, expanding on it and revising its conclusions where supported by new data or methods. CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS IN SAN LEANDRO San Leandro, like most communities in California, is expected to experience multiple direct impacts as a result of climate change, including potential flooding, sea-level rise (SLR), wildfires, drought, extreme heat, and negative effects on public health and biodiversity. Research suggests that California will experience hotter and drier conditions, reductions in winter snow and increases in winter rains, SLR, significant changes to the water cycle, and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Such compounded impacts will affect economic systems throughout the state, with likely ramifications in San Leandro. To refrain from action is costly and risky; the California Fourth Step 1. Identify Exposure Step 2. Identify Sensitivities & Potential Impacts Step 3. Assess Adaptive Capacity Step 4. Prioritize Vulnerability Scoring 75