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Public °ewe,,, Hearing Draft <br />Each indicator is used to project future emissions for the following sectors: <br />• Households: Residential energy use, off -road equipment (lawn and garden equipment, <br />pleasure craft, and recreational equipment) <br />• Jobs: Nonresidential energy use, commercial vehicle use, off -road equipment <br />(entertainment equipment, industrial equipment, light commercial equipment, <br />Transport Refrigeration Units) <br />• Service Population: Solid waste generation, BART, water and wastewater <br />• Change in Service Population: Off -road equipment (construction and mining <br />equipment) <br />Residential population is not used as an indicator by itself but is combined with jobs to <br />calculate service population. Emissions from direct access electricity (an option that allows <br />eligible customers, usually larger industrial or institutional customers, to purchase electricity <br />directly from third -party providers), point sources, and freight trains are held constant and <br />are not projected to change over time. Construction and mining emissions, part of the off - <br />road equipment sector, are forecast by the change in service population. Landfill emissions <br />are based on decomposition rates provided by CARB and are not forecast by an indicator. <br />Biomass sequestration is associated with the amount of forested land and level of <br />development in San Leandro. Because the City's size is not expected to change and there <br />are no plans to develop land currently designated as open space, the amount of GHGs <br />absorbed by biomass sequestration is not projected to change. <br />The project team applied these indicators to forecast future GHG indicators. Relative to <br />2017 emissions, San Leandro's GHG emissions are expected to increase by approximately <br />21 percent by 2050 if no action is taken to reduce emissions. The forecast assumes that <br />each person in San Leandro will continue to contribute the same amount of GHG emissions <br />to the community's total, so that the amount of GHGs released increases in step with <br />population growth of the community. As with the other forecast years, the 2020 forecast is <br />a projection based on 2017 emissions and anticipated growth levels and does not reflect <br />the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic or any other specific measured activity in 2020. <br />Table 56 shows the forecast results. <br />Page 40 San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan <br />