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2. GHG Inventory and Forecast <br />GHG FORECAST <br />A forecast of future GHG emissions helps to ensure consistency with the guidelines for a <br />Qualified GHG Reduction Strategy put forward by BAAQMD. A forecast allows elected <br />officials, City staff, and community members to identify the amount of GHG reductions <br />necessary to achieve future GHG reduction targets, and it can help support long-range <br />community planning efforts. The CAP update includes a forecast for the calendar years <br />2020, 2030, and 2050. <br />Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for developing the CAP since GHG emissions <br />typically increase in future years as population grows without a concerted effort to <br />implement emissions reduction projects. One must compare future reductions with future <br />emissions levels, not current levels. Therefore, in developing the 2021 CAP, the City of San <br />Leandro needs to take into account projected growth in emissions. <br />A GHG emissions forecast estimates how emissions would grow over time if no action is <br />taken at the federal, State, or local level to reduce them. A set of indicators determines <br />the extent of growth that could occur and how resulting emissions may change. An <br />emissions forecast was prepared for San Leandro using the best available information <br />regarding indicators and growth rates. The forecast relies on growth assumptions from the <br />California Department of Finance and the Association of Bay Area Government (ABAG) <br />that were approved by City staff, shown in Table 45. Activity data rates in the forecast, <br />such as household energy use, vehicle miles traveled, or per person waste disposal, are <br />based on the 2017 emissions inventory. <br />Table 45 <br />San <br />Leandro 2017, <br />2020, <br />2030, and <br />2050 Growth Indicators <br />Percentage.. a .- . - <br />000 <br />Population <br />90,560 <br />98,370 <br />103,910 <br />111,260 <br />36% Dept of <br />Finance/ <br />Census/ABAG <br />Households <br />33,460 <br />35,150 <br />36,180 <br />37,720 <br />22% Dept of <br />Finance/ <br />Census/ABAG <br />Jobs <br />50,310 <br />54,700 <br />57,830 <br />61,450 <br />57% California EDD/ <br />us <br />Census/ABAG <br />Service 140,870 153,070 161,740 172,710 43% <br />Population' <br />* Service population is the sum of the residential population and number of jobs <br />San Leandro 2021 Climate Action Plan Page 39 <br />