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14 4. Modeling Results and Investments Every year, new people experience homelessness in Alameda County but the homelessness response system does not currently have enough capacity to keep up with this annual inflow. This means that the increasing homeless population includes many people who could not get the assistance they needed to end their homelessness. In 2020 to 2021, we saw that 36% (4,358) of adult only households experiencing homelessness exited homeless services, and that 64% (7,647) remained. For households with minor children, 33% (321) of households exited the system in 2020-2021, while 67% (664) households remained. The system modeling used the information about current outcomes and the suggested pathways designed by the Racial Equity Analysis/ CRE process make estimates of the programs and inventory needed to achieve an optimal homeless system that has the capacity to serve all of the existing need within 5 years. The update used this information to explore three potential scenarios: 1. Scenario 1 Steady Continued Increases in the Annual Number of People Experiencing Homelessness: Growth at the same level as the four years prior to 2019 PIT Count (on average 20% per year). To meet the needs takes a very significantly increased response. 2. Scenario 2 Dramatic Increase in the Number of People Experiencing Homelessness: New homelessness grows at an unprecedented rate in year one of the model (2022) due to the impacts of COVID and as eviction moratoria are lifted, and then rates of inflow into homelessness continue as predicted in Scenario 1. Meeting this need takes an extraordinary level of response that is not likely to be achievable. 3. Scenario 3 Gradual Decrease in the Number of People Experiencing Homelessness: New homelessness experiences a similar increase to the past several years in year 1 (2022) (a 20% increase), and then begins to decrease to a 10% increase in year 2 (2023) and continues to decrease by -10% in years 4 (2025) and 5 (2026), achieving a net decrease by year 5. Meeting this need takes a significantly increased response including a focus on prevention, though the total resources needed are not as large as the other two scenarios. The System Modeling for this plan focuses on Scenario 3, as this scenario a reflects the community’s desire to increase prevention and address homelessness before it starts whenever possible to reduce the rate of new homelessness. If new homelessness increases beyond the modeling predictions, the gap between what our existing system is able to offer and what is needed to serve all homeless households in our system will be greater, and more costly to fill. Homelessness continues to grow unless we invest in prevention and housing Figure 3 below demonstrates that even with Scenario 3 (a projected decrease in new homelessness over 5 years), our current level of investment will not be enough to operate a system that is able to serve all of the need among households experiencing homelessness and to stop homelessness from growing (red line below). However, with a significant increase in investment into the homeless system (green line below), by year 5 (2026) our system is able to serve all of the need among homeless households (leaving 0% unmet need).