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ii Importantly, focus groups and research on racial equity strategies informed the modeling and the proposed pathways to ensure the deep disparities in our system are addressed through new investments at every level. These investments include creating extensive new program models and pathways out of homelessness, using affordable housing dedicated for people experiencing homelessness, PSH for people who need more supports, targeted behavioral health services, improved and expanded homelessness prevention, transitional housing for youth and shallow and flexible rental assistance to fill gaps for people with limited incomes in addition to expanding current program models such as Rapid Rehousing and Permanent Supportive Housing (PSH).. The 2021 planning update explored different scenarios related to levels of anticipated new homelessness and of investment to determine the gaps in the current system and what it will take to fill them. The community selected to sponsor a scenario approach that seeks to reduce new entries to homelessness by preventing it when possible, and to create a more robust response system with enough resources at the end of five years to provide a housing exit to every person who does become homeless. Building a system where people are rehoused quickly Figure 1. Impact of Increased Investment on Homeless System Outcomes Source: CA-502 System Model, Abt Associates, 1/20/2022 Overall, more than 24,000 additional housing exits are needed over five years to reach a point at which the numbers of people who become homeless in a year and the numbers who leave homelessness in that time are in balance. These 24,000 interventions include everything from short-term prevention to permanent subsidies and housing with services, depending on the needs of the households. In addition to the significant need for housing, because of the high rate of unsheltered homelessness (an estimated 79% people experiencing homelessness in Alameda County are unsheltered) the Plan includes a significant increase in shelter in the first two years, followed by a slow decline in shelter as more housing resources become available and less shelter is needed. Some of the planned added shelter will be able to be converted to much needed housing in later years, as has been demonstrated by successful Project Roomkey to Project Homekey transitions, creating permanent housing by 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Year 1 (2022) Year 2 (2023) Year 3 (2024) Year 4 (2025) Year 5 (2026) Annual HH in the System HHs served in pathways to housing Unmet need