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<br />ii <br /> <br />Importantly, focus groups and research on racial equity strategies informed the modeling and the <br />proposed pathways to ensure the deep disparities in our system are addressed through new <br />investments at every level. These investments include creating extensive new program models and <br />pathways out of homelessness, using affordable housing dedicated for people experiencing <br />homelessness, PSH for people who need more supports, targeted behavioral health services, improved <br />and expanded homelessness prevention, transitional housing for youth and shallow and flexible rental <br />assistance to fill gaps for people with limited incomes in addition to expanding current program models <br />such as Rapid Rehousing and Permanent Supportive Housing (PSH).. <br /> <br />The 2021 planning update explored different scenarios related to levels of anticipated new <br />homelessness and of investment to determine the gaps in the current system and what it will take to <br />fill them. The community selected to sponsor a scenario approach that seeks to reduce new entries to <br />homelessness by preventing it when possible, and to create a more robust response system with <br />enough resources at the end of five years to provide a housing exit to every person who does become <br />homeless. <br /> <br />Building a system where people are rehoused quickly <br /> <br />Figure 1. Impact of Increased Investment on Homeless System Outcomes <br /> Source: CA-502 System Model, Abt Associates, 1/20/2022 <br /> <br />Overall, more than 24,000 additional housing exits are needed over five years to reach a point at which <br />the numbers of people who become homeless in a year and the numbers who leave homelessness in <br />that time are in balance. These 24,000 interventions include everything from short-term prevention to <br />permanent subsidies and housing with services, depending on the needs of the households. <br /> <br />In addition to the significant need for housing, because of the high rate of unsheltered homelessness <br />(an estimated 79% people experiencing homelessness in Alameda County are unsheltered) the Plan <br />includes a significant increase in shelter in the first two years, followed by a slow decline in shelter as <br />more housing resources become available and less shelter is needed. Some of the planned added <br />shelter will be able to be converted to much needed housing in later years, as has been demonstrated <br />by successful Project Roomkey to Project Homekey transitions, creating permanent housing by <br />0 <br />2,000 <br />4,000 <br />6,000 <br />8,000 <br />10,000 <br />12,000 <br />14,000 <br />16,000 <br />Year 1 <br />(2022) <br />Year 2 <br />(2023) <br />Year 3 <br />(2024) <br />Year 4 <br />(2025) <br />Year 5 <br />(2026) <br />Annual HH in the System <br />HHs served in pathways to housing <br />Unmet need