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ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW DRAFT Housing Projections and Future Needs ABAG Population and Household Projections Population and household projections for the City are developed every two years by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). In December 2001, ABAG Published "Projections 2002," containing forecasts through 2025. These projections indicate an anticipated increase of 608 households and 3,648 residents in San Leandro between 2000 and 2005. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent for households and about 1.0 percent for population. This is slightly slower than the projected growth rates for Alameda County as a whole (0.7 percent and 1.2 percent respectively). The forecasts indicate that average household size will continue to rise in San Leandro during the next five years, reaching 2.63 by 2005. Assuming a 5 percent vacancy rate, the 608 new households translate into a demand for about 640 additional housing units. Beyond 2005, ABAG is projecting continued slow but steady growth in San Leandro. Projections 2002 indicates another 520 households between 2005 and 2010, and another 450 households between 2010 and 2015. Population is projected to grow by 1,400 between 2005 and 2010 and 800 between 2010 and 2015. ABAG projects that average household size will begin to decline again after 2010. On a cumulative basis, the projections indicate a need for about 1,650 new housing units in San Leandro during the next 15 years. Although this is about 10 percent higher than the quantity anticipated by the San Leandro General Plan, the City's policies and land use regulations could accommodate this growth. As the next chapter of the Housing Element illustrates, future housing development will largely occur on underutilized former commercial and industrial sites Regional Housing Needs Determination As mentioned in the Introduction to this Housing Element, the California Government Code requires each community in the region to provide for its "fair share" of the region's housing needs. Fair share allocations are determined by ABAG based on population and employment projections and other factors. The "fair share" allocation for San Leandro for the period January 1,1999-June 30, 2006 is 870 housing units. This is 1.9 percent of Alameda County's total assignment of 46,793 housing units. ABAG has stratified the 870 unit assignment by income group as follows: Above Moderate Income (households earning more than 120 percent of areawide median) 317 units Moderate Income (households earning between 80 and 120 percent of areawide median) 251 units Low Income (households earning between 50 and 80 percent of areawide median) 107 units Very Low Income (households earning less than 50 percent of areawide median) 195 units Chapter 4 of the Housing Element describes the City's progress toward meeting this target as of early 2002, and identifies the remaining units to be produced by the end of the planning period. In San Leandro, "above moderate income" units are typically market -rate, for -sale units such as those now being marketed at Cherrywood and Wood Creek. "Moderate" income units include most of the �HfOUSING ELEMENT 3-34 SAN LEANDRO GENERAL PLAN -1 q (o