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APPENDIX A: DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE BUSINESS RETENTION, EXPANSION, AND ATTRACTION TARGETS Potential Business Retention Targets The "shift -share" analvsis conducted in the Baseline Study provides a framework for defining specific criteria to use in screening at the sectoral level for potential retention targets. To briefly recap a more detailed explanation that is included in the Baseline Stud. a shift -share analvsis involves a quantitative analysis of changes in the composition of local economic activity over time. in comparison to changes in the regional economy over the same time period. In a shift -share analysis, the two primary indicators of the performance of a particular sector in relation to the regional and local economies are the differential shift and the proportional shift. The proportional shift indicates how a sector is performing at the regional level, with positive values indicating increasing share of total employment and vice -versa for negative values. The differential shift value expresses how the sector is performing locally in comparison to the same sector region -wide. A positive value means the local economy is capturing an increasingly greater share of the regional employment in a particular sector. while a negative value means that the local economy is losing share. Using the measures from the shift -share analvsis, it is possible to establish very basic criteria for identifying sectors that may be at risk in the region and locally. indicating a possible need for retention assistance. This analysis suggests a preliminary list of industries that the Cite could initially consider for retention efforts based on an identification of industries that currently employ large numbers of workers locally, but which have been of declining importance within the region (negative proportional shift in employment). The rationale is that there may be steps that can be taken to help secure long-term stability of employment in these sectors locally. even if regional trends indicate an industr\ decline. These sectors are identified in Table A-1. below. As shown in the table. these sectors accounted for over one fourth of the City's 1992 employment of 46.779 persons. Next. to further refine this identification of sectors potentially at risk. the differential shift factor is considered. Among the group of industry sectors contained in Table A-1. the data indicate that the non -durable goods wholesale (S.1.C. 5100). fabricated metal products (3400). and automotive dealers and service station (5500) sectors may be at ..reatest risk. based on the fact that the\ are not just losing employment share at the regional level (negative proportional shift). they are also performing even worse locally than at the regional level (negative differential shift). In contrast. the remainder of the potentially -at risk" sectors shown in the table actually performed better locally than in the region. Based on the positive differential shifts experienced by the remaining seven sectors. they may in fact be at relatively little risk. 75 28