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Fund Balance Under Moderate Economy -Moderate Spending Scenario <br />With Selected Assumption Changes (mil.) <br />$100 <br />$50 <br />_ <br />--Optimistic Revenue <br />$0 <br />_ <br />- <br />Street: $0 <br />($50) <br />- <br />-17 <br />COLA @ 1% <br />�-. <br />---No FTE Change <br />($150) <br />—Fire Costs @3.5% <br />($200) <br />— <br />�M05T LIKELY <br />($250) <br />+2 FTE Add/yr <br />($300) <br />—Lower Discount Rate <br />($350) <br />—Deeper Recession <br />($400) <br />($450) <br />—COLA @3% <br />($500) <br />—Pessimistic Revenue <br />18 19 20 2122 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3132 33 34 35 36 37 <br />Time to Implement Solutions (mil.) <br />®Fiscal Uncertainty+Net Unassigned <br />O Major Emergencies <br />®2 Months' General Fund Expenditures <br />$50 <br />Implement <br />$� <br />Changes <br />$30 <br />$20 <br />$10 <br />- - <br />-- <br />$0 <br />($10) <br />($20) <br />($30) <br />Scenario: Moderate Economy & Moderate Spending <br />($40) <br />18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 <br />• Each line shows ending <br />General Fund balance <br />given just one change to <br />the Most Likely forecast <br />• Shows relative impact of <br />different individual <br />assumption changes <br />• Budget model can <br />combine multiple <br />assumption changes into <br />any given alternate <br />scenario <br />• Corrective actions <br />needed within next <br />three years to: <br />maintain available <br />reserves of over two <br />months' operating <br />expenditures <br />preserve Major <br />Emergencies Reserve <br />• Current reserve levels <br />allow some time to <br />phase in solutions <br />