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Consumer <br />-30.0% <br />-20.0% <br />-10.0% <br />0.0% <br />10.0% <br />20.0% <br />30.0% <br />40.0% <br />50.0% <br />60.0% <br />Retail Sales YOY % Change <br />YOY (%) ChangeRetail Sales rose 0.7%in September after an upward revision to 0.8%in August,exceeding the consensus forecast.Control Group Sales, <br />which are used to calculate gross domestic product and exclude food services,auto dealers,building materials stores and gasoline <br />stations,rebounded 0.6%and reflected broad increases across sectors.On a year-over-year basis, Retail Sales growth accelerated 3.8% <br />in September versus an upwardly revised 2.9%gain in August. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 102.6 in <br />October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September,primarily due to inflation concerns and geopolitical developments.While the <br />consumer has been resilient,dwindling excess savings, rising credit card balances,and the resumption of student loan payments pose <br />potential headwinds to future economic growth. <br />0 <br />20 <br />40 <br />60 <br />80 <br />100 <br />120 <br />140 <br />160 <br />Index LevelConsumer Confidence <br />Recession <br />Source: US Department of Commerce Source: The Conference Board <br />All time high is 144.70 (1/31/00); All time low is 25.30 (2/28/09) <br />6