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Leading Indicators of Economic Activity <br />-25.0% <br />-20.0% <br />-15.0% <br />-10.0% <br />-5.0% <br />0.0% <br />5.0% <br />10.0% <br />15.0% <br />20.0% <br />Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) <br />RecessionYOY(%) Change-1.00 <br />-0.75 <br />-0.50 <br />-0.25 <br />0.00 <br />0.25 <br />0.50 <br />0.75 <br />1.00 <br />Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) <br />Recession <br />3 Month AverageThe Conference B oard’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)fell 0.7%in September,continuing the persistent decline for the last year and a <br />half.The index declined 7.8%year-over-year.The consistent decline month-over-month continues to signal future contraction in the <br />economy.The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)surprised to the upside at 0.02 in September from a downwardly revised -0.22 <br />in August.On a 3-month moving average basis,the CFNAI improved to 0.00 in September,indicating a rate of growth about equal to the <br />historical average trend. <br />Source: The Conference Board Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago <br />7