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Reso 2026-061 2025 Q4 OPEB Trust & Pension Trust Investment Report
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Reso 2026-061 2025 Q4 OPEB Trust & Pension Trust Investment Report
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5/19/2026 1:31:27 PM
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CM City Clerk-City Council
CM City Clerk-City Council - Document Type
Resolution
Document Date (6)
5/18/2026
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QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY <br />For the Quarter Ended December 31, 2025 <br />Multi-Asset Class Management <br />-1.00% <br />0.00% <br />1.00% <br />2.00% <br />3.00% <br />4.00% <br />5.00% <br />6.00% <br />Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 <br />Fed Target Rate ECB Target Rate <br />Bank of England Target Rate Bank of Canada Target Rate <br />0 <br />20 <br />40 <br />60 <br />80 <br />100 <br />Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 <br />WHAT WE’RE WATCHING <br />• The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates twice in the fourth quarter, bringing the new range <br />to 3.50%-3.75% as labor data continued to soften. Looking forward, the summary <br />of economic growth projections point to growing optimism, with an increase in <br />projected economic growth along with a decrease in projected inflation for 2026. <br />The dot plot for 2026 reflects an expectation of one cut in 2026, though the timing of <br />such a move is uncertain. Outside of the U.S., the European Central Bank (ECB), which <br />preceded the U.S. with cuts earlier in the year, held rates flat in the fourth quarter. <br />• U.S. consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan survey of <br />consumers, continued to fall during the fourth quarter, and the reading was down <br />nearly 30% year over year as affordability concerns remain. This consumer fatigue <br />translated into a slower than expected gain in retail sales as consumers were more <br />selective about purchases. <br />• U.S. military action in Venezuela adds to the ongoing geopolitical risks, prompting <br />increased uncertainty as the possible implications for the market are weighed. <br />Venezuela’s oil reserves, and their relationship to China, its primary oil buyer, are <br />of particular interest. In the short term the impact on energy prices is expected to <br />relatively minimal, while the longer-term impacts depend on the future of Venezuela’s <br />energy infrastructure and who controls it. <br />Global Central Bank Rates <br />Source: Bloomberg. <br />U.S. ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI <br />Source: Bloomberg. <br />40 <br />45 <br />50 <br />55 <br />60 <br />65 <br />Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 <br />University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment <br />Source: Bloomberg. <br />2.3 <br />Exhibit A <br />Resolution No. 2026-061
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