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4.3.5 Traffic Forecasts This area of the analysis forecasts travel demand. Traffic forecasts will be developed in a two- stage process. The first stage estimates the net increase in traffic generated within the downtown as a result of build-out of each land use alternative. . Trip generation rates from the Institute of Transportation Engineers will be the basis for estimating traffic. These rates will be adjusted to reflect the multi-modal characteristics of the downtown (e.g., compact, walkable, high density mixed-uses, transit-orientation, etc.). . Adjustments will be based on the URBEMIS trip reduction methodology developed by the South Coast Air Quality Management District and Caltrans. This method reflects reductions for mixed-use, pedestrian/bicycle connectivity and transit-oriented areas based on quantifiable physical attributes (densities, connectivity, mix of uses, transit services) and demand management (parking supply/cost, TDM, etc.). · The net trip generation of build-out of the downtown will include adjusted trip generation of all proposed redevelopment minus the existing uses being replaced by new development. The net trip generation will be assigned to the circulation network. Added to existing traffic volumes, this will result in an "existing + project" scenario, an artificial development scenario that identifies specific impacts of the downtown alternatives for comparative purposes. The first stage traffic projections would be prepared for a minimum of three land use alternative scenarios. The second stage results in development of cumulative traffic projections required for CEQA environmental review. The ACCMA travel demand forecasting model will be used to develop background traffic growth rates for downtown streets, representing build.out of the City's General Plan or alternative available model forecasts for an interim planning horizon. These cumulative projections would reflect a No Project scenario, as required by CEQA. To develop cumulative projections for evaluation of the downtown TOD strategy, the model's growth rates will be adjusted to reflect background growth plus downtown TOD traffic estimates representing project conditions. It is anticipated that analysis of a cumulative scenario would include only one of the alternative land use and circulation scenarios (e.g., the project), once selected as part of the downtown plan process. For purposes of CEQA, the cumulative traffic impacts analysis will evaluate the land use alternative that represents worst case traffic and parking conditions, unless a single preferred land use alternative results from Task 3. Potential impacts and mitigation identified for a worst case scenario would also be relevant to other land use alternatives. The assessment of alternative land use scenarios would be integrated into the alternatives section of the EIR and include a quantitative trip generation and parking demand evaluation and a qualitative comparative assessment of potential impacts. 4.3.6 Traffic Impacts Analysis The near-term and cumulative traffic projections developed above would be used to prepare a traffic impacts analysis. Traffic estimates would be assigned to the study area roadways based on distribution patterns derived from the ACCMA travel demand forecasting model. The traffic analysis would evaluate levels of service on the 20 intersections evaluated in the Inventory of Consulting Services Agreement between City of San Leandro and BMS Design Group Page 24 of32