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<br />City of San Leandro Marina Lodging Development <br /> <br />Page 2 <br /> <br />statements reflect potential revenues and expenses associated with <br />ongoing operations; and, <br /> <br />8. Developed an estimate of the cost to construct the recommended <br />developments. Based on this cost estimate, together with our cash flow <br />forecasts, we have assessed the economic feasibility of the recommended <br />developments, including any public participation which may be required to <br />attract private investment. <br /> <br />Presented in the following paragraphs is a brief summary of our findings and <br />conclusions. <br /> <br />B. CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE LODGING INDUSTRY <br /> <br />The economic conditions of the San Francisco Bay Area have declined since mid~ <br />2001, in tandem with the decline in the national economy overall. This drop has had <br />a substantial impact on the economy of the San Francisco Bay Area as technology <br />and tourism, two of the Bay Area's most prominent industries, suffered significant <br />setbacks. In particular in the Bay Area, Silicon Valley companies have been <br />negatively impacted by the continued downturn in technology stock prices and the <br />drop in venture capital funding. This resulted in significant employment reductions, a <br />slowdown in business travel, tighter fiscal policies, and the bankruptcy of more than <br />530 Internet companies in 2001 alone. <br /> <br />The tourism industry was also negatively impacted by the downturn in the economy, <br />but more dramatically by the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. This is <br />reflected, for example, in decreased passenger counts at the San Francisco <br />International Airport; the year-to~date June 2002 total passenger count for airport is <br />down 16.7 percent from the same period in 2001. The drop in tourism is also <br />reflected in decreased occupancy levels at hotels throughout the Bay Area. <br /> <br />It is expected that the slowdown of the overall economy has reached a level of <br />stabilization at this point in 2002, with some slight growth forecasted to start in late <br />2003. In the San Francisco Bay Area, recovery and commercial growth is projected <br />to occur from late 2003 throughout 2004, and forward. The San Francisco Bay Area <br />continues to be headquarters to 26 of the nation's leading Fortune 500 companies <br />and continues to be acclaimed for its wealth of high~tech companies, world~c1ass <br />universities (Stanford and Berkeley), and cultural and recreational attractions. In the <br />long~term, the San Francisco Bay Area will remain an intemational business center <br />and a desirable tourist destination. As will be further described in the following text, the <br />developments which we recommend in this report would be open or nearing completion <br />at the point when market recovery is expected to have occurred. <br />