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November 9, 2009 Section 2: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast <br />The forecast projects the growth (or reduction) in greenhouse gas emissions that will occur in a <br />given future year. Projections are based on the assumption that energy consumption will grow <br />as population increases. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) forecasts a 0.67% <br />annual population growth rate from 2005 through 2020, translating to a 10.4 percent total <br />increase from 2005 to 2020. For the community analysis, the business-as-usual emissions <br />forecast was estimated by applying this population growth rate to San Leandro's 2005 base <br />year residential, commercial/industrial, and transportation emissions. <br />For the municipal government analysis, no growth was anticipated in the municipal government <br />operations. Additional building area for a new senior center and the potential expanded police <br />administrative building is accounted for in this assumption. Furthermore, given the economic <br />conditions in the 2007 - 2009 timeframe and recent City budget reductions, the forecast <br />includes the assumption of no employee growth. <br />Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for developing the Climate Action Plan, since <br />GHG emissions typically increase in future years without a concerted effort to implement <br />emissions reduction projects. One must compare future reductions with future emissions levels, <br />not current levels. Therefore, in developing the Climate Action Plan, the City of San Leandro <br />needs to take into account projected growth in emissions. Figure 5 below illustrates how the <br />business-as-usual emissions are estimated to increase, thus widening the emissions reductions <br />needed by 2020. <br />Figure 5. San Leandro GHG Reduction Target (25% below 2005 levels by 2020) <br />~ ~ ____r ~ .__ ~ ____ _~ , <br />1,000 -~ --- - ~ ' ~ <br />,~ ~. "~ <br />~ 840 <br />-~ 000 <br />40Q - -Business-as-usuat <br />{ <br />200 ~--- Reduct~n Gea- ~ <br />~2~°lfl beer 2t3tit~ i <br />I~ tai I`,. Q3 CT1 C3 f V (`7 Sj" lE7 ifl 1`~ #~ C~ C7 <br />O C~ O O O T r f r T T T 1r T T <br />fl ~ ~ Q ~ ~ ~ ~ ® ~ ~ Q <br />y~,c_ `~~o Page 14 <br />iy~~PnyA~s ~,~"v <br />