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December 21, 2009 Section 2: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast <br />The forecast projects the growth (or reduction) in greenhouse gas emissions that will occur in a <br />given future year. Projections are based on the assumption that energy consumption will grow <br />as population increases. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) forecasts a 0.67% <br />annual population growth rate from 2005 through 2020, translating to a 10.4 percent total <br />increase from 2005 to 2020. For the community analysis, the business-as-usual emissions <br />forecast was estimated by applying this population growth rate to San Leandro's 2005 base <br />year residential, commercial/industrial, and transportation emissions. <br />For the municipal government analysis, no growth was anticipated in the municipal government <br />operations. Additional building area for a new senior center and the potential expanded police <br />administrative building is accounted for in this assumption. Furthermore, given the economic <br />conditions in the 2007 - 2009 timeframe and recent City budget reductions, the forecast <br />includes the assumption of no employee growth. <br />Conducting an emissions forecast is essential for developing the Climate Action Plan, since <br />GHG emissions typically increase in future years without a concerted effort to implement <br />emissions reduction projects. One must compare future reductions with future emissions levels, <br />not current levels. Therefore, in developing the Climate Action Plan, the City of San Leandro <br />needs to take into account projected growth in emissions. Figure 5 below illustrates how the <br />business-as-usual emissions are estimated to increase, thus widening the emissions reductions <br />needed by 2020. <br />Figure 5. San Leandro GHG Reduction Target (25% below 2005 levels by 2020) <br />-t 2~ _ ___ __._ ; <br />f <br />1,000 ~,... <br />~ 8£itl <br />~ -' <br />6~0 <br />i <br />~ '~~ - B~~ess-as-usuaE <br />~ ~ <br />2(}f} ~ Recf~act~n Goa( ~ <br />~2 i°~ be~av 2~5~ <br />~n co r- rn cs~ o t- cv ~ ~ a~ cfl r- as ~ o~ <br />O C3 [] C3 CJ ~ ~ r F- r r r ~ ~ +r ICY <br />CJ O O C] C> © © O O O d C3 CJ Q C~ O <br />iV CV CV N N [Y {Y N N 4V N N CY i(Y N {Y <br />Page 15 <br />