Airport Highlights 2005 0203 - Laserfiche WebLink

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• • • • Aviation Committee January 13, 2005 Master Plan Progress Report Page 3 • uses. "Existing Conditions" provides relevant Airport statistics, including the amount of area (acres) related to each of the primary land uses shown on the land- use • Planning Horizon and Inherent Uncertainties in Forecasting One of the most, important master plan tasks is to forecast near -term and long -term activity at the Airport (e.g., airline passengers, air cargo tonnage, flights, etc.). However, it is important t� • note that forecasts of aviation activity are almost always wrong (in other words, the actual • number of passengers realized in any particular year rarely ever matches the forecast number of passengers for that year, for example). This difference occurs because of trend - breakers. Example trend - breakers include airline deregulation, the Gulf War, September 11, jet fuel • availability and prices, SARS, economic downtums, low -cost carrier competition, etc. Because • • of this reality, airport planners must focus on plans, programs, and projects that are flexible and . workable for a range of possible future conditions. Moreover, actual development should be tied to activity levels, not specific years, because the specific level of activity warranting new development may occur sooner or later than the projected year. However, forecasting the approximate years or range of years that a certain amount of activity is anticipated to occur is a necessary master. plan task to relate potential development to its surroundings (e.g., other • activities and programs) and for general discussion purposes. • For the purposes of this master plan, Port staff and the Stakeholder Advisory Committee agreed that the near -term planning horizon (5 -years out) will be 2010, and the Tong -term horizon will be • 2025 (20 -years out). More detailed forecasts have been prepared for the 2010 timeframe (when the future is somewhat more predicable), and more general forecasts have been prepared for • 2025 (when the future is substantially more uncertain). The graphic titled "Forecasting Process" outlines the detailed forecasting process for each of the three primary types of Airport users: (1) airline passengers, (2) air cargo, and (3) general • aviation (including corporate jets and turboprops, helicopters, and light piston aircraft). • • Airline Passengers and Flights • The first "Forecasts" graph (Million Annual Passengers. Historic and Forecast, Graph 1 P) shows • the historic and forecast number of airline•passengers at OAK. The historic data is based on • . . Port and FAA data. The forecasts are from the FM's Terminal Area Forecast for OAK and the Regional Airport Planning Committee's Regional Airport System Plan (RASP). Based on recent trends at OAK and these forecasts prepared by others, Port staff and the Stakeholder Advisory Committee agreed to plan for 18 million annual passengers (MAP) in 2010 and 30 MAP in 2025. Port staff and the Committee also discussed that the next round of terminal development may be more appropriately planned, designed, and constructed for slightly more than 18 MAP and . slightly beyond the 2010 timeframe. 18 to 20 MAP (which would occur approximately in the 2010 to 2012 timeframe) provides a good range to consider for the next round of passenger facility planning, design, and construction at the Airport. • The following table summarizes the master plan forecasts for airline passengers and airline • • • passenger flights: • •